Scientific breakthrough
Every scenario in which scientific breakthrough is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
56 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reusable rockets cut launch 10x?
38%▲ 3–10 years
What if CRISPR cures common diseases?
38%▲ 3–10 years
What if Whole-genome screening at birth?
37%▲ 3–10 years
What if Malaria and HIV vaccines deploy?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI halves drug-discovery time?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI compounds scientific discovery?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if Self-driving labs go mainstream?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if Solid-state and superconductor R&D threatens copper demand growth?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if Smackover DLE turns the US into a top-three lithium producer?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if SMR commercialization triples reactor fuel demand?
34%▲ 3–10 years
What if Universal cancer vaccine works?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if LFP shift guts cobalt demand and entrenches the surplus?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if LFP-shift demand erosion buries the nickel surplus deeper?
33%▲ 3–10 years
What if Solid-state battery scale-up reorders the materials supply chain?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Battery-pack cost collapse to $108/kWh accelerates storage?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Rare-earth-free motor designs cut neodymium dependence?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Silicon-anode breakthrough lifts density and reorders supply?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Seabed nodule mining opens a new nickel-cobalt-manganese source?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Recycled battery metals supply a fifth of cathode feed?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI ends major bottleneck diseases?
30%▲ 1–3 years
What if DLE direct-extraction cost collapse unlocks a wall of lithium?
30%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synthetic-graphite anode ramp breaks China's anode grip?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if Cellular agriculture cuts feed-grain demand for animal protein?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI designs superbug antibiotics?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Cobalt-free high-nickel and LMFP chemistries strand refineries?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Magnet recycling scales recovered rare earths from e-waste?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sodium-ion storage glut crushes stationary battery costs?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Lithium clay extraction at Thacker Pass scales US supply?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Hydrogen-economy build-out tightens platinum and iridium?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Sodium-ion adoption erodes structural lithium demand?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Heat-tolerant wheat cultivars lift yields and ease grain prices?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Precision-ag and gene-edited crops lift global yields broadly?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Lithium recycling glut from black-mass capacity caps prices?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Lithium-metal anode breakthrough resets battery chemistry demand?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Battery-recycled cobalt loop caps virgin demand growth?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Iron-nitride magnets commercialize a rare-earth-free alternative?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Geothermal-brine lithium co-production scales clean supply?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Climate-tech VC boom funds breakthrough decarbonization?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Vanadium-flow storage demand lifts a thin minor-metal market?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Quantum advantage powers a materials-and-drug discovery boom?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Manganese-rich LMR cathode collapses battery nickel demand?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aluminum-ion and other chemistries dilute battery-metal demand?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Long-duration iron-air storage undercuts lithium for the grid?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Thorium MSR demonstration reshapes the nuclear fuel outlook?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Lab-grown cocoa butter erodes West-African cocoa demand?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Fusion or thorium progress caps the long-run uranium thesis?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Fusion or geothermal breakthrough reshapes utility power-supply outlook?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Direct-air-capture scales: carbon-removal market takes off?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if Fusion pilot plant hits net-energy milestone, reshapes power outlook?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if Enhanced geothermal scales 24/7 firm clean power for datacenters?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Commercial fusion delivers power?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Asteroid and lunar metals narrative caps long-run scarcity fears?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space-based solar power demonstrator beams energy to the grid?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Grid-forming inverters solve renewables stability, unlock more clean MW?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if Fusion pilot delivers net power: energy-abundance optimism?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Solar-geoengineering deployment debate roils markets?