What if AI liability and copyright rulings raise platform legal risk?
Adverse copyright and AI-liability rulings impose licensing costs and litigation exposure on model builders and platforms, trimming AI-product margins and clouding the earnings outlook.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Adverse copyright and AI-liability rulings impose licensing costs and litigation exposure on model builders and platforms, trimming AI-product margins and clouding the earnings outlook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI breakthrough ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -19.86–+1.02% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–+0.15% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.24–+1.94% · other way -2.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.32–+4.09% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.87–+1.84% · other way +11.62% (n=7) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.15–+2.0% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.21% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.38% · other way +3.33% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.68–+5.15% · other way +7.92% (n=7) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.17–-0.02% · other way -0.99% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.64–+0.64% · other way -1.94% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.2% · 5d -7.6% | 100% | 14 | 0.66 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.4% | 74% | 12 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 23 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.3% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 30 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 29 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -5.8% | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 43% | 29 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 49% | 29 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 42% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 48% | 28 | 0.00 | · |