What if AI-native ad agencies undercut the trade-desk middle layer?
Automated, model-driven media buying disintermediates independent demand-side platforms and agencies, compressing ad-tech intermediary margins even as platform spend holds.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Automated, model-driven media buying disintermediates independent demand-side platforms and agencies, compressing ad-tech intermediary margins even as platform spend holds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.61–+3.35% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.4% · other way +3.33% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -20.3–+3.26% · other way +24.73% (n=6) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.04–+8.03% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.7–+1.15% · other way +11.45% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.18–+0.61% · other way -0.58% (n=7) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.27–+2.07% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.02–+0.22% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.62–+1.23% · other way -0.94% (n=11) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.84–+1.25% · other way +11.62% (n=7) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.09–+0.22% · other way +3.83% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.03–+0.26% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.96–+4.78% · other way +7.92% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -7.7% | 100% | 11 | 0.67 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 76% | 16 | 0.42 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.1% | 70% | 16 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 15 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 14 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 15 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.0% | 57% | 16 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 15 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 16 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -6.4% | 51% | 16 | 0.02 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 43% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |