What if AI productivity broadens market leadership beyond the mega-caps?
As AI-driven cost savings reach the broad economy, earnings growth broadens from a few mega-caps to the wider market, lifting equal-weight indices; the productivity diffusion supports a durable, broader bull market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. As AI-driven cost savings reach the broad economy, earnings growth broadens from a few mega-caps to the wider market, lifting equal-weight indices; the productivity diffusion supports a durable, broader bull market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.89–+1.92% · other way -0.21% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -3.61–+6.52% · other way -2.73% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.21–+1.65% · other way +0.89% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -25.29–+9.31% · other way -16.64% (n=8) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.62–+1.15% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -6.28–+14.4% · other way +2.99% (n=11) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.96–+3.09% · other way -2.97% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.12–+2.22% · other way -13.5% (n=9) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.3–+3.86% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.37–+3.85% · other way +3.04% (n=11) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.3–+5.16% · other way -0.16% (n=11) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.03–+1.23% · other way +0.25% (n=11) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.99–+1.87% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 7 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -23.8% · 5d -10.7% | 100% | 6 | 0.72 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +1.5% | 87% | 7 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.5% · 5d +1.3% | 87% | 7 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +0.8% | 87% | 7 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 87% | 7 | 0.51 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 87% | 7 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +1.3% ↺ fades | 80% | 7 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -0.0% | 80% | 7 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -2.5% | 73% | 7 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -0.5% | 73% | 7 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 73% | 7 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d -4bp ↺ fades | 73% | 7 | 0.28 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 67% | 7 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 7 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |