What if Airline-credit stress widens as fuel and demand shocks combine?
A simultaneous fuel spike and demand softening pressures weaker-balance-sheet carriers, widening airline credit spreads and raising restructuring risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A simultaneous fuel spike and demand softening pressures weaker-balance-sheet carriers, widening airline credit spreads and raising restructuring risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.03–+0.4% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.02–+0.92% · other way +0.49% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–+0.43% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.56–+7.0% · other way -11.64% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–+0.14% · other way +6.03% (n=10) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.09% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.23–-0.09% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.01–+0.29% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.53% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.45–+2.49% · other way +12.13% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.79–+0.19% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.16–+2.94% · other way +8.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.25–+3.14% · other way +21.85% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +1.3% | 59% | 37 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.4% · 5d +5.4% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +1.6% | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 37 | 0.03 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |