What if a gas insurgency threatens Algeria's pipelines to Europe?
An Algerian gas insurgency is a southern-European energy shock, so the cleaner trade is EU gas (TTF) and EUR weakness rather than the +2.4% Brent the cascade leads with -- Algeria pipes gas to Italy/Spain via Transmed and Medgaz. Rhymes with the 2013 In Amenas gas-plant siege, which briefly threatened Algerian export reliability. Transmission: Italy and Spain are the directly exposed buyers, having leaned on Algeria to replace Russian gas post-2022. Forward: with Algeria now Europe's swing pipeline supplier, the EU gas-security premium is larger than it was in 2013.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A jihadist resurgence and political crisis in Algeria threaten gas pipelines supplying southern Europe. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.