What if a gas insurgency threatens Algeria's pipelines to Europe?
An Algerian gas insurgency is a southern-European energy shock, so the cleaner trade is EU gas (TTF) and EUR weakness rather than the +2.4% Brent the cascade leads with -- Algeria pipes gas to Italy/Spain via Transmed and Medgaz. Rhymes with the 2013 In Amenas gas-plant siege, which briefly threatened Algerian export reliability. Transmission: Italy and Spain are the directly exposed buyers, having leaned on Algeria to replace Russian gas post-2022. Forward: with Algeria now Europe's swing pipeline supplier, the EU gas-security premium is larger than it was in 2013.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A jihadist resurgence and political crisis in Algeria threaten gas pipelines supplying southern Europe. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.8–+1.54% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -1.64–+1.49% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.05–+2.02% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.34–+3.0% · other way +5.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.35–+2.05% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.04–+1.13% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.26–+1.4% · other way +5.19% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.03% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.51–+4.32% · other way +5.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–-0.01% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.78–+2.95% · other way +7.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–-0.06% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.96–+0.11% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.53–+2.68% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade on oil: CL/BRENT/XLE history is poisoned by 2014 OPEC share-war and 2020 Saudi-Russia crashes — demand collapses, not a supply-side gas/pipeline shock, so the realized negatives don't map.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 72% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +2.5% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.5% | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 27 | 0.13 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 28 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +3bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 27 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 48% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Algeria jihadist resurgence dormant; pipeline-threatening crisis plausible but not developing now A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.