Geopolitics · 3–10 years horizon
What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
A ceasefire lets Russia reconstitute its military for a future offensive, keeping European defense spending elevated even as near-term war risk eases.
Front Page › World
World
Wars, powers, sanctions and the world order — the shocks that move everything else.
More in World
Geopolitics · 3–10 years horizon
What if EU energy independence from Russia is completed?
The EU finalizes its exit from Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel, structurally lowering its energy-security risk premium and supporting industrial competitiveness.
Geopolitics · 3–10 years horizon
What if European strategic autonomy in defense takes shape?
The EU builds independent defense-industrial capacity and command structures to hedge wavering US commitment, a multi-year structural bid for European defense and industry.
Filter by country
- SudanWhat if RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine?44%
- Sudan, MaliWhat if Sudan refugee surge strains Chad and South Sudan?44%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela transition fragments, migration surges north?44%
- GlobalWhat if 2026 US midterms deliver divided government?44%
- China, IndiaWhat if India emerges as a third pole between the US and China?43%
- NigeriaWhat if Gulf of Guinea piracy resurges off Nigeria-Benin?43%
- China, Japan +1What if Japan, Korea or China hits a demographic tipping point?42%
- RussiaWhat if US LNG glut offsets the Russian-gas exit?42%
- GlobalWhat if Haiti collapse forces a multinational intervention?42%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?41%
- UkraineWhat if Mediator fatigue stalls the Ukraine peace process?41%
- United States, China +1What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?41%
- GlobalWhat if NATO eastern-flank deterrence proves credible?41%
- RussiaWhat if Sanctioned Russian crude floods Asia, global glut?41%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if Burkina Faso junta loses the north to JNIM?41%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia-Eritrea border clash reignites Tigray front?41%
- GlobalWhat if NATO 5%-of-GDP rearmament supercycle?41%
- ChinaWhat if the US barred outbound investment in Chinese tech?40%
- ChinaWhat if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?40%
- GlobalWhat if Allied munitions surge restocks European arsenals?40%
- RussiaWhat if Comprehensive sanctions relief reopens Russia to trade?40%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia-Eritrea sea-access deal averts war?40%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?40%
- GlobalWhat if the US imposes flat per-parcel import duties?39%
- Poland, UkraineWhat if Reconstruction boom lifts CEE and the euro?39%
- Ukraine, Russia +1What if Central Asia pivots westward post-ceasefire?39%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia internal conflict spreads to Amhara and Oromia?39%
- GlobalWhat if Peace dividend revives euro-area capex and growth?38%
- GlobalWhat if Post-war European energy-cost gap closes vs the US?38%
- DR CongoWhat if M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika?38%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela-backed influx destabilizes Trinidad and Guyana?38%
- Ghana, MaliWhat if Wider Sahel war draws in coastal militaries?38%
- TaiwanWhat if Cross-strait status quo holds, tail risk fades?38%
- IsraelWhat if Middle East normalization lowers oil risk premium?38%
- IndiaWhat if India retaliates against US goods with fresh tariffs?37%
- GlobalWhat if Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line?37%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Eurasian de-escalation revives global risk appetite?37%
- SudanWhat if RSF takes el-Obeid, splitting Sudan in two?37%
- GlobalWhat if EU rearmament unlocks joint defense bonds?37%
- GlobalWhat if Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on?37%
- RussiaWhat if Western intel warns of a 2027 Russia-NATO window?36%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela-Guyana ICJ ruling defuses Essequibo?36%
- United States, BelgiumWhat if EU-US tariff truce averts trade war?36%
- GlobalWhat if Europe defense self-reliance boosts EU industrials?36%
- GlobalWhat if an immigration crackdown triggers a labour shortage?35%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?35%
- United States, DR CongoWhat if Washington Accords deliver Rwandan withdrawal?35%
- ChinaWhat if US-China truce extended a second year to 2027?35%
- China, RussiaWhat if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?34%
- GlobalWhat if a CBDC race fragments the global payment system?34%
- TaiwanWhat if KMT 2028 win ushers in a cross-strait economic thaw?34%
- ChinaWhat if Great-power climate-tech cooperation resumes?34%
- China, Ukraine +1What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?34%
- GlobalWhat if Northern Sea Route opens as a stable trade lane?33%
- United StatesWhat if USMCA renewal stabilizes North American trade?33%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if CHIPS-Act fabs ramp, easing supply fragility?33%
- GlobalWhat if Drone-and-munitions buildout reshapes defense spend?33%
- China, JapanWhat if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?33%
- United States, MexicoWhat if US-Mexico security pact replaces unilateral strikes?32%
- ChinaWhat if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?32%
- ChinaWhat if China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under deal?32%
- ChinaWhat if Soybeans rally as China resumes US buying?32%
- GlobalWhat if AUKUS submarine pact accelerates Indo-Pacific build?32%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?32%
- GlobalWhat if a major economy ditches the dollar for trade settlement?31%
- China, South Korea +1What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?31%
- Yemen, SudanWhat if Sudan hardens into two rival states?31%
- ChinaWhat if Magnet recycling ends rare-earth dependence?31%
- DR CongoWhat if DRC cobalt export quota squeezes the battery chain?31%
- United StatesWhat if a new trade bloc forms that shuts out the United States?30%
- United States, China +1What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?30%
- GlobalWhat if the US bars exports of frontier AI model weights?30%
- YemenWhat if the Red Sea needs naval convoys to move trade?30%
- ChinaWhat if MP-Lynas crack Western heavy-REE supply?30%
- GlobalWhat if Rare-earth glut as new supply outpaces demand?30%
- United StatesWhat if Inflation-Reduction-Act content rules ease for allies?30%
- ChinaWhat if China graphite export curb starves Western anode makers?30%
- United States, China +1What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?29%
- United States, ChinaWhat if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?29%
- ChinaWhat if US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals?29%
- ChinaWhat if Phase-two US-China deal stabilizes trade?29%
- GlobalWhat if Midterm sweep unlocks fresh fiscal stimulus?29%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?29%
- Venezuela, IranWhat if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?29%
- ChinaWhat if Indo-Pacific trade pact deepens regional integration?29%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Allied semiconductor supply diversification matures?29%
- IndiaWhat if US-India strategic-economic pact deepens?29%
- GlobalWhat if Digital-trade and services deals offset goods tariffs?29%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Korea-Japan-US trilateral deepens deterrence and trade?29%
- China, BelgiumWhat if China-EU EV-tariff truce reopens auto trade?29%
- UkraineWhat if Ukraine reconstruction boom lifts EU industrials and EUR?29%
- ChinaWhat if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?28%
- ChinaWhat if the US slapped a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports?28%
- China, RussiaWhat if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?28%
- ChinaWhat if the US imposes a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates in kind?28%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Cross-strait flights and tourism fully restored under KMT thaw?28%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?28%
- TaiwanWhat if Cross-strait CBMs cut accidental-clash risk to a multi-year low?28%
- JapanWhat if Japan defense budget hits 2% of GDP, anchoring deterrence?28%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if US-Japan-Korea trilateral pact hardens regional deterrence?28%
- GlobalWhat if Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defense?28%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if China reaches 7nm-at-scale, blunting controls?28%
- India, Poland +2What if Friend-shoring rewires supply chains to allies?28%
- China, Japan +2What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?28%
- GlobalWhat if Space militarization opens a defense-space cycle?28%
- GlobalWhat if Détente caps defense spending, peace dividend returns?28%
- ChinaWhat if Managed US-China decoupling avoids a hard break?28%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?28%
- ChinaWhat if Cross-border audit deal keeps Chinese listings in US?28%
- ChinaWhat if China NdFeB magnet export ban halts EV-motor production lines?28%
- RussiaWhat if Russian enrichment cutoff strands 44% of world SWU capacity?28%
- GlobalWhat if an H-1B visa clampdown hits US tech and spurs reshoring?27%
- TaiwanWhat if hundreds of PLA aircraft saturate Taiwan's air-defence zone daily?27%
- Israel, LebanonWhat if the Lebanon ceasefire collapses and Israel bombs Beirut?27%
- Israel, Lebanon +2What if a renewed Gaza war spills across the region?27%
- ChinaWhat if China embargoes tungsten and bismuth exports?27%
- China, TaiwanWhat if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?27%
- China, IndiaWhat if China-India border disengagement reopens trade and flights?27%
- ChinaWhat if Copper squeezed by China-West minerals split?27%
- China, RussiaWhat if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?27%
- GlobalWhat if Bilateral trade deals roll back reciprocal tariffs?27%
- Japan, South Korea +1What if North Korea tests a nuke and fires over Japan?26%
- China, Saudi ArabiaWhat if Saudi Arabia starts pricing oil in yuan?26%
- GlobalWhat if Haiti's transitional government collapses entirely?26%
- China, VietnamWhat if the US hikes Vietnam's transshipment tariff to 60%?26%
- GlobalWhat if a dockworker strike shuts every US East Coast port?26%
- China, European UnionWhat if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?26%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique insurgency spreads south from Cabo Delgado?26%
- ChinaWhat if US-China tariff wall escalates to 60%+ average?26%
- ChinaWhat if Trade-war fragmentation tips global growth lower?26%
- United StatesWhat if Steel-aluminum tariffs reset to 50%?26%
- Saudi Arabia, IsraelWhat if Israel and Saudi Arabia normalise relations?25%
- GlobalWhat if the dollar falls below half of global FX reserves?25%
- United States, China +1What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?25%
- South KoreaWhat if Korea peace process draws record foreign inflows into KOSPI?25%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador narco-violence overwhelms state control?25%
- ChinaWhat if China weaponizes rare-earth export licensing?25%
- ChinaWhat if US revokes China's permanent normal trade status?25%
- GlobalWhat if the US tears up the EU auto-tariff cap?24%
- Japan, Mexico +1What if the US applies 25% Section-232 tariffs on imported autos and parts from the EU, Japan and Korea?24%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Trump-Xi 'grand bargain' trades tariffs for Taiwan restraint?24%
- ChinaWhat if ASEAN-China sign a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct?24%
- MaliWhat if Sahel jihadist offensive cuts Mali gold roads?24%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates +3What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?24%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?24%
- GlobalWhat if Allied AI-chip cartel coordinates export policy?24%
- GlobalWhat if Trade truce revives global capex cycle?24%
- United States, China +1What if Mexico tariff threat pressures peso and supply chains?24%
- ChinaWhat if China heavy-REE export licensing chokes Dy and Tb supply?24%
- ChinaWhat if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?24%
- ChinaWhat if EU Critical Raw Materials Act forces supplier diversification?24%
- India, IrelandWhat if US pharma tariffs are extended to generic drugs?23%
- GlobalWhat if a strike over automation snarls the port of Los Angeles?23%
- China, TaiwanWhat if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?23%
- South KoreaWhat if Trump-Kim summit yields a 'cold peace' testing freeze?23%
- ChinaWhat if US-China resume working-level military talks, cutting accident risk?23%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Taiwan-China economic interdependence deepens, lowering war odds?23%
- GlobalWhat if Asia-Pacific guardrails agreement lowers cross-asset volatility?23%
- MaliWhat if Cocoa-belt terror shock hits Ivory Coast?23%
- France, Switzerland +1What if Mali ditches French CFA reserves for gold-backed plan?23%
- KenyaWhat if Haiti gang coalition collapses the transitional state?23%
- MaliWhat if Sahel coup contagion topples another West African leader?23%
- ChinaWhat if China export-flood sparks Western tariff wall?23%
- Canada, Indonesia +1What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?23%
- ChinaWhat if China tungsten export controls squeeze cutting-tool and munitions?23%
- Nigeria, DR CongoWhat if a coup in a critical-minerals nation chokes supply?22%
- GlobalWhat if a global shipping-container shortage strands exporters?22%
- United StatesWhat if erratic tariff threats freeze global corporate investment?22%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?22%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Inter-Korean military hotline and DMZ de-mining resume?22%
- China, JapanWhat if China-Japan détente restores the maritime crisis hotline?22%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if Manila-Beijing 'gentlemen's agreement' calms the SCS for a year?22%
- ChinaWhat if US-China hotline use defuses an Asian near-miss crisis?22%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Taiwan-China military hotline established, cutting clash risk?22%
- TaiwanWhat if Trump-Xi Taiwan understanding caps the 2027 invasion-window fear?22%
- China, South Korea +1What if Sustained Asia-Pacific peace rerates the regional equity risk premium?22%
- TaiwanWhat if Cross-strait integration pact slashes the invasion risk premium?22%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?22%
- RussiaWhat if Moldova locks in EU accession?22%
- ChinaWhat if Greenland rare-earth mine breaks China's grip?22%
- GlobalWhat if EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and tech?22%
- GlobalWhat if US pharma Section-232 tariff lifts drug costs?22%
- ChinaWhat if China rare-earth snapback hits defense supply?22%
- GlobalWhat if Arctic resource scramble raises great-power friction?22%
- MexicoWhat if the US launches direct strikes on cartels in Mexico?21%
- ChinaWhat if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?21%
- GlobalWhat if reinstated and broadened Section-232 steel and aluminium tariffs trigger retaliatory metals duties globally?21%
- ChinaWhat if a friend-shoring scramble triggers a costly duplicative capex wave that raises goods costs structurally?21%
- China, VietnamWhat if China-Vietnam agree a joint development zone in disputed seas?21%
- ChinaWhat if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?21%
- Japan, India +1What if Quad maritime-security pact stabilizes Indo-Pacific sea lanes?21%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?21%
- ChinaWhat if ASEAN-China joint patrols ease South China Sea tanker war-risk?21%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if Broad Asia détente: Taiwan, Korea and the SCS all cool together?21%
- UkraineWhat if US aid cutoff opens a 2027 funding cliff?21%
- IsraelWhat if Gaza reconstruction unlocked under truce?21%
- YemenWhat if Red Sea attacks choke Bab-el-Mandeb shipping?21%
- Egypt, Ethiopia +1What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?21%
- NigeriaWhat if Boko Haram resurgence displaces northeast Nigeria?21%
- GlobalWhat if Boeing-soybeans package seals interim deal?21%
- IranWhat if Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes oil and vol?21%
- ChinaWhat if Critical-minerals club sets allied price floors?21%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear sites and Iran retaliates?20%
- ChinaWhat if China halted its rare-earth and gallium exports?20%
- GlobalWhat if Europe faces a new wave of mass migration?20%
- MexicoWhat if a border closure disrupts US-Mexico trade and labour?20%
- GlobalWhat if a lunar race for helium-3 opens a new frontier?20%
- GlobalWhat if the US restricts gene-synthesis and AI protein-design tools?20%
- PanamaWhat if a new El Nino drought chokes the Panama Canal?20%
- VenezuelaWhat if the US imposes full secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude?20%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if China-Philippines reach a Second Thomas resupply modus vivendi?20%
- China, IndiaWhat if China-India BRICS-anchored détente deepens economic ties?20%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea backchannel freeze quietly removes the Korea discount?20%
- GlobalWhat if Odesa-port reopening floods the wheat market?20%
- United Kingdom, UkraineWhat if Europe backfills the US aid gap for Kyiv?20%
- Poland, Hungary +1What if Ukraine EU-accession talks advance after truce?20%
- United States, China +1What if US-Greenland minerals-security deal locks in supply?20%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Armenia-Azerbaijan sign a final peace treaty?20%
- Saudi Arabia, IsraelWhat if Saudi-Israel grand bargain signed?20%
- GlobalWhat if Multi-year Mideast calm compresses the structural risk premium?20%
- GlobalWhat if West Africa coup belt expands to a coastal state?20%
- United States, United Arab Emirates +1What if Sudan gold-for-weapons nexus hit by US sanctions?20%
- MexicoWhat if Cartel infiltration disrupts Mexican avocado and lime belt?20%
- United States, ChinaWhat if US bans all advanced-AI chip sales to China?20%
- GlobalWhat if Tariff inflation forces a stagflationary mix?20%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Auto tariffs squeeze global carmakers?20%
- ChinaWhat if China bans rare-earth processing technology exports?20%
- ChinaWhat if China graphite-and-magnet retaliation answers US chip curbs?20%
- GlobalWhat if US stockpile build for critical minerals tightens spot markets?20%
- Panama, EgyptWhat if drought at Panama and disruption at Suez hit at once?19%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if JNIM overruns Bamako and topples Mali's junta?19%
- Nigeria, NigerWhat if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?19%
- LibyaWhat if Libya's oil ports fall under blockade again?19%
- ColombiaWhat if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?19%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?19%
- China, Panama +1What if container freight rates spike fivefold?19%
- ChinaWhat if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?19%
- United States, ChinaWhat if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?19%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?19%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?19%
- China, Japan +1What if China-Japan-Korea summit revives full economic cooperation?19%
- RussiaWhat if Moscow retaliates for frozen-asset loan?19%
- RussiaWhat if Sanctions partially lifted, Russian gas trickles back?19%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan opens a Trans-Caspian bypass route?19%
- Turkey, AzerbaijanWhat if Zangezur/TRIPP route opens Caspian-Europe transit?19%
- ChinaWhat if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?19%
- United States, China +2What if Chip-equipment export ban widens to allies?19%
- China, DR CongoWhat if DRC-China cobalt offtake renegotiation rattles supply terms?19%
- ChinaWhat if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?19%
- ChinaWhat if US foreign-entity sourcing rules lock Chinese metals out of credits?19%
- ChinaWhat if US tariffs on Chinese graphite reprice the anode supply chain?19%
- ChinaWhat if G7 critical-minerals buyers' club counters Chinese pricing?19%
- GlobalWhat if climate-driven mass migration destabilises whole regions?18%
- GlobalWhat if talent and capital flee a major economy at once?18%
- GlobalWhat if BRICS launches a commodity-backed settlement currency?18%
- RussiaWhat if Russian and NATO submarines square off under the Arctic ice?18%
- GlobalWhat if an insurgent assault shutters Mozambique's LNG again?18%
- ChinaWhat if the US imposes tariffs above 100% on broad categories of Chinese goods?18%
- Belgium, European UnionWhat if the EU retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on American vehicles, agriculture and tech?18%
- China, Russia +1What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?18%
- Yemen, EgyptWhat if sustained attacks force container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope?18%
- PanamaWhat if a severe drought slashes Panama Canal transits and reroutes US-Asia shipping?18%
- European UnionWhat if the US imposes a 10-20% universal baseline tariff on all imports?18%
- ChinaWhat if the US pressures allies to align tariffs against China?18%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Trump-Kim deal trades USFK posture for an ICBM freeze?18%
- GlobalWhat if Pacific arms-control dialogue caps a regional missile race?18%
- RussiaWhat if Ceasefire collapses inside six months?18%
- UkraineWhat if Sunflower-oil exports normalize, oilseeds slide?18%
- RussiaWhat if Baltic hybrid-threat de-escalation accord?18%
- RussiaWhat if Putin-Trump summit yields a Europe security pact?18%
- GlobalWhat if Baltic states finish a defensive border wall?18%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?18%
- RussiaWhat if Brent sinks as a ceasefire restores Russian flows?18%
- RussiaWhat if Russia fertilizer flows normalize, prices ease?18%
- RussiaWhat if New Baltic LNG and interconnectors end Russia leverage?18%
- RussiaWhat if Price-cap removal eases Russian crude back to market?18%
- GlobalWhat if Black Sea demined, shipping and insurance normalize?18%
- RussiaWhat if Russia's National Wealth Fund buffer runs dry?18%
- RussiaWhat if Russia's reintegration eases EM commodity-import costs?18%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?18%
- Turkey, Iran +2What if Syria sectarian war reignites?18%
- IranWhat if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?18%
- YemenWhat if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?18%
- ChinaWhat if China retaliates with broad US-goods tariffs?18%
- China, BrazilWhat if China zeroes US soybean imports in retaliation?18%
- ChinaWhat if US-China military hotline cuts miscalc risk?18%
- United States, ChinaWhat if China dumps US Treasuries as a sanctions weapon?18%
- ChinaWhat if China bans key EV-battery tech exports?18%
- GlobalWhat if WTO breakdown ends rules-based trade order?18%
- ChinaWhat if Rare-earth scare drives MP/Lynas spike?18%
- ChinaWhat if Tech-bloc bifurcation hard-codes two standards?18%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China-Taiwan economic blockade tail re-prices semis?18%
- GlobalWhat if Sanctions overreach fragments global payments?18%
- ChinaWhat if US-China financial decoupling delists Chinese ADRs?18%
- ChinaWhat if China bismuth and indium curbs hit solders and displays?18%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?18%
- China, MyanmarWhat if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?18%
- ChinaWhat if China lithium-conversion tech curb slows Western refiners?18%
- India, PakistanWhat if India and Pakistan trade strikes over Kashmir?17%
- Yemen, EgyptWhat if the Houthis sink a tanker and close the Suez route?17%
- GlobalWhat if civil war in a major oil producer cuts off supply?17%
- South KoreaWhat if North and South Korean warships clash along the sea border?17%
- Iran, Iraq +3What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?17%
- ChinaWhat if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?17%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if the US imposes tariffs on imported chips and chip-containing goods to reshore fabrication?17%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China Coast Guard 'customs quarantine' of Taiwan's Kinmen?17%
- Russia, South Korea +1What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?17%
- China, Japan +3What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?17%
- China, Japan +1What if China-Japan-Korea trilateral FTA talks restart amid détente?17%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Verified North Korea denuclearization roadmap lifts all of Asia?17%
- Japan, South Korea +1What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?17%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if Japan-Korea reconciliation thaw unlocks supply-chain cooperation?17%
- GlobalWhat if NATO rearmament stalls on fiscal limits?17%
- Germany, ItalyWhat if Hybrid-war debt-mutualization breaks EU unity?17%
- RussiaWhat if Arctic Council cooperation resumes, tensions ease?17%
- UkraineWhat if Ukraine's drone-industrial complex scales exports?17%
- RussiaWhat if Russian metals re-enter LME after a thaw?17%
- RussiaWhat if New START successor revives strategic arms control?17%
- UkraineWhat if European troops deploy as a ceasefire tripwire?17%
- UkraineWhat if Western reconstruction guarantees de-risk Ukraine bonds?17%
- IranWhat if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?17%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?17%
- IsraelWhat if Gaza governance deal anchors a wider calm?17%
- SyriaWhat if Syria stabilization dividend reopens trade?17%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey-PKK peace ends a 40-year war?17%
- MaliWhat if Jihadist cells reach northern Togo?17%
- France, NigerWhat if Niger nationalizes uranium, Western fuel tightens?17%
- ChinaWhat if China adds gallium-germanium-graphite export bans?17%
- ChinaWhat if Full US-China tech decoupling fractures supply chains?17%
- China, TaiwanWhat if US-China cold-war détente stabilizes the system?17%
- ChinaWhat if South China Sea clash jolts global shipping?17%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?16%
- IranWhat if a US-Iran nuclear deal reopens Iranian oil?16%
- IranWhat if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?16%
- GlobalWhat if an assassination attempt wounds a sitting US President?16%
- GlobalWhat if a G7 reserve seizure triggers flight from US assets?16%
- Turkey, Iran +2What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?16%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador breaks down into a narco-state?16%
- AfghanistanWhat if ISIS-K mounts a sustained offensive in Afghanistan?16%
- China, MyanmarWhat if Myanmar's junta collapses and the country fragments?16%
- GlobalWhat if the US makes its universal tariff baseline permanent?16%
- China, GermanyWhat if Germany forces COSCO out of Hamburg's port?16%
- China, RussiaWhat if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?16%
- ChinaWhat if US-China decoupling accelerates sharply and fragments global supply chains?16%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?16%
- European UnionWhat if broad tariffs produce a stagflationary mix of higher inflation and recession risk?16%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing extends export licensing to battery-grade graphite and antimony, squeezing EV and defense makers?16%
- ChinaWhat if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?16%
- ChinaWhat if trade reorganizes along geopolitical lines into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs?16%
- GlobalWhat if major partners coordinate retaliation against US tariffs targeting agriculture, aircraft and tech?16%
- United KingdomWhat if supply-chain reshoring embeds a persistent cost-push inflation wave?16%
- China, JapanWhat if China-Japan Senkaku standoff after a CCG incursion surge?16%
- ChinaWhat if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?16%
- ChinaWhat if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?16%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Black Sea grain corridor fully reopens?16%
- UkraineWhat if Front collapses at Pokrovsk after aid lapse?16%
- RussiaWhat if RUB rallies on ceasefire and sanctions thaw?16%
- UkraineWhat if POW-and-children exchange thaws negotiations?16%
- RussiaWhat if Yamal LNG stranded as EU ban bites?16%
- Russia, AzerbaijanWhat if SGC/TANAP expansion lifts Caspian gas to Europe?16%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?16%
- GlobalWhat if Gold gives back gains as Europe de-escalates?16%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia full gas cutoff via Ukraine and TurkStream?16%
- RussiaWhat if Moldova energy-secures via EU grid integration?16%
- GlobalWhat if Baltic-Nordic grid hardening reduces sabotage risk?16%
- IranWhat if Iran HEU ship-out deal for sanctions relief?16%
- IsraelWhat if Gaza truce collapses into a wider war?16%
- Israel, LebanonWhat if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?16%
- Israel, LebanonWhat if Hezbollah rejects disarmament, north reignites?16%
- Saudi Arabia, IsraelWhat if Saudi-Israel talks collapse, Tadawul de-rates?16%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Gulf arms super-cycle bids defense names?16%
- IranWhat if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?16%
- IranWhat if Gulf-Iran economic interdependence dampens conflict?16%
- GlobalWhat if AUSSOM funding gap lets al-Shabaab encircle Mogadishu?16%
- Nigeria, NigerWhat if Niger Delta militancy reignites, cutting Nigeria crude?16%
- MexicoWhat if US designates cartels and launches sustained operations?16%
- DR CongoWhat if DRC election crisis reignites Kinshasa unrest?16%
- ChinaWhat if China cuts off antimony and tungsten to the West?16%
- GlobalWhat if Cyber escalation hits cross-border payments?16%
- GlobalWhat if Sabotage of undersea cables disrupts data and finance?16%
- ChinaWhat if Pacific naval incident triggers risk-off spasm?16%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if China sinks a Philippine ship in the South China Sea?15%
- GlobalWhat if a major economy opens its borders to win global talent?15%
- GlobalWhat if a remittance shock destabilises emerging-market currencies?15%
- NigeriaWhat if Boko Haram and ISWAP overrun northern Nigerian cities?15%
- DR CongoWhat if M23 seizes Congo's tin and tungsten belt?15%
- TurkeyWhat if Turkey storms east of the Euphrates against the SDF?15%
- GlobalWhat if ransomware freezes the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp?15%
- GlobalWhat if central banks buy 1,000+ tonnes of gold a year fearing reserve weaponization?15%
- ChinaWhat if the US and EU impose steep tariffs on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs?15%
- ChinaWhat if the US and EU race to stockpile critical minerals but multi-year lead times leave supply chains exposed?15%
- GlobalWhat if an expanded BRICS+ bloc deepens non-dollar settlement and sidelines the US?15%
- GlobalWhat if the WTO appellate system stays paralysed and members resort to unilateral tariffs?15%
- ChinaWhat if a China demand slump unleashes export dumping of steel, solar and EVs and triggers global tariff retaliation?15%
- ChinaWhat if the US snaps a 25% tariff on broad Chinese goods overnight?15%
- ChinaWhat if a broad Section 301 action layers new tariffs on Chinese shipbuilding and chips?15%
- United States, TaiwanWhat if US 'strategic clarity' pledge to defend Taiwan raises the heat?15%
- Russia, South Korea +1What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?15%
- South KoreaWhat if USFK drawdown pushes Seoul toward nuclear latency?15%
- China, Russia +2What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?15%
- GlobalWhat if Grain corridor collapses after tanker strike?15%
- Russia, FinlandWhat if Shadow-fleet tanker spill in the Baltic?15%
- Poland, Romania +1What if Russian drone incursions over Poland and Romania?15%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan CPC pipeline outage spikes Brent?15%
- KazakhstanWhat if AZN and KZT rally as Caucasus transit normalizes?15%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Ukraine transit deal keeps some Russian gas flowing?15%
- GlobalWhat if Belarus normalization reopens a sanctions off-ramp?15%
- Russia, Turkey +1What if Turkey becomes Europe's swing gas hub?15%
- IsraelWhat if Gulf integration dividend lifts the region?15%
- GlobalWhat if Regional peace shifts Gulf budgets from arms to growth?15%
- Turkey, AzerbaijanWhat if South Caucasus peace opens a new trade corridor?15%
- Iran, Lebanon +1What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?15%
- IranWhat if Iran rejoins NPT safeguards in full?15%
- IranWhat if US-Iran prisoner-and-funds deal opens dialogue?15%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if JNIM blockade strangles Bamako fuel supply?15%
- France, Russia +2What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?15%
- GlobalWhat if al-Shabaab overruns a Somali regional capital?15%
- DR CongoWhat if M23 seizes Goma airport, severing Kivu supply?15%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique LNG abandoned, multi-year supply lost?15%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela strikes Stabroek, hitting ExxonMobil oil?15%
- United Kingdom, VenezuelaWhat if Essequibo annexation push escalates with Guyana?15%
- MexicoWhat if US strikes Mexican cartel labs on Mexican soil?15%
- Colombia, VenezuelaWhat if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?15%
- South AfricaWhat if Mozambique post-election unrest hits Maputo corridor?15%
- GlobalWhat if Mozambique gas-zone attack kills foreign contractors?15%
- GlobalWhat if US escalates chip Section-232 tariff to 100%?15%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China quarantine of Taiwan halts chip flow?15%
- ChinaWhat if China cuts off all rare-earth magnet exports in a trade rupture?15%
- GlobalWhat if the US deports millions of undocumented workers?14%
- YemenWhat if the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait entirely?14%
- GlobalWhat if Somali piracy resurges and reroutes global shipping?14%
- ChinaWhat if a new outbreak locks down Shanghai's ports?14%
- ChinaWhat if China's industrial overcapacity triggers a global wave of protective tariffs?14%
- ChinaWhat if China retaliates against US tariffs with regulatory probes and selective import bans rather than matching duties?14%
- China, India +1What if tariffs on pharmaceuticals and active ingredients expose US dependence on China and India API supply?14%
- ChinaWhat if China targets US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs and collapses US farm exports?14%
- ChinaWhat if an expanded CFIUS-style regime blocks Chinese investment across tech, biotech and infrastructure?14%
- ChinaWhat if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?14%
- United States, China +1What if threatened US tariffs on Mexico over Chinese transshipment disrupt nearshoring bets and the peso?14%
- GlobalWhat if trade fragmentation triggers a sudden stop in emerging markets?14%
- GlobalWhat if cumulative tariff shocks tip the US and global economy into recession?14%
- ChinaWhat if competing industrial subsidies escalate into a global subsidy war?14%
- GlobalWhat if full EU CBAM enforcement sharply erodes EM exporters' market access?14%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea conducts 7th nuclear test, its largest yield yet?14%
- Japan, South KoreaWhat if US-Japan-Korea trilateral cracks as Seoul-Tokyo feud reignites?14%
- RussiaWhat if Strikes on Russian crude export terminals spike Brent?14%
- United States, China +2What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?14%
- China, RussiaWhat if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?14%
- KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan unrest threatens energy exports?14%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Armenia-Azerbaijan war reignites over Syunik?14%
- Turkey, AzerbaijanWhat if Turkey brokers a durable Caucasus settlement?14%
- RussiaWhat if Gold breaks out on a Russia-NATO escalation?14%
- RussiaWhat if Russian palladium and nickel export ban hits metals?14%
- GermanyWhat if Sabotage of a German LNG import jetty?14%
- RussiaWhat if Russia oil price-cap enforcement tightens supply?14%
- RussiaWhat if Rosatom fuel sanctions tighten European nuclear supply?14%
- China, Ukraine +1What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?14%
- RussiaWhat if Russia oil-export disruption tightens the global balance?14%
- UkraineWhat if Multi-front Eurasian escalation triggers global risk-off?14%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if US-Israeli strikes hit Fordow and Natanz?14%
- IranWhat if Iran enters verified nuclear freeze?14%
- SyriaWhat if Syria reconstruction draws Gulf capital?14%
- IsraelWhat if Abraham Accords widen to new Gulf and Arab states?14%
- Iran, Iraq +2What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?14%
- China, Saudi Arabia +1What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?14%
- IsraelWhat if Gulf-Israel defense integration bids missile-defense names?14%
- IsraelWhat if Two-state framework revived under a regional deal?14%
- Turkey, SyriaWhat if Syria sanctions lifted, reconstruction boom begins?14%
- Iran, IraqWhat if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?14%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf air-defense shield neutralizes the drone threat?14%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if Bamako overrun, Mali junta flees?14%
- Nigeria, MaliWhat if Northern Nigeria banditry merges with Sahel jihadism?14%
- Yemen, EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia seizes Assab, war with Eritrea erupts?14%
- Yemen, SudanWhat if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?14%
- DR CongoWhat if Congo-Rwanda clashes risk a regional war?14%
- GlobalWhat if Cabo Delgado attack halts TotalEnergies LNG?14%
- United States, NigeriaWhat if US strikes targets in Nigeria over persecution claim?14%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela oil sabotage spikes amid power struggle?14%
- Yemen, Egypt +1What if Eritrea aligns with Egypt-Somalia axis versus Ethiopia?14%
- Algeria, Mali +1What if Mali-Algeria tensions flare over Tuareg rebels?14%
- SudanWhat if Sudan war spills into South Sudan oilfields?14%
- GlobalWhat if Haiti crisis spills migration pressure onto neighbors?14%
- MaliWhat if Cocoa terror premium spikes prices to fresh records?14%
- EthiopiaWhat if Eritrea closes its coast, squeezing Ethiopian trade?14%
- GlobalWhat if a contested US election sparks a constitutional crisis?13%
- China, JapanWhat if a PLA coast-guard ship sinks a Japanese patrol boat near the Senkakus?13%
- VenezuelaWhat if post-Maduro Venezuela splinters into an oil war?13%
- MexicoWhat if Mexico loses its USMCA tariff exemption?13%
- ChinaWhat if Washington weaponises dollar clearing against a Gulf state?13%
- DR CongoWhat if Congo slashes its cobalt export quota toward zero?13%
- ChinaWhat if accelerated friend-shoring disrupts global manufacturing supply chains?13%
- ChinaWhat if the EU and US erect steep tariff walls against Chinese EVs and solar panels?13%
- ChinaWhat if successive escalation drives bilateral US-China goods trade toward near-zero?13%
- ChinaWhat if China restricts tungsten and specialty-metal exports used in tooling and electronics?13%
- GlobalWhat if a shadow-fleet and barter network erodes sanctions efficacy and creates hidden counterparty exposures?13%
- ChinaWhat if sanctions weaponization splits global payments into rival Western and China-led blocs?13%
- United States, ChinaWhat if Washington broadens outbound-investment bans to biotech and clean tech beyond chips and AI?13%
- China, European UnionWhat if the EU adopts a harder inbound and outbound screening regime toward China?13%
- GlobalWhat if governments force divestiture of strategically sensitive cross-border holdings and trigger fire-sale valuations?13%
- United States, Canada +1What if a USMCA renegotiation breakdown triggers US tariff threats on Mexico and Canada?13%
- GlobalWhat if the world settles into a durable fragmentation regime of higher tariffs and bifurcated tech?13%
- China, India +1What if full EU carbon border adjustment plus retaliation from China and India fragments carbon-intensive trade?13%
- China, Mexico +1What if the US and EU crack down on Chinese goods rerouted via Vietnam and Mexico?13%
- GlobalWhat if tariffs and export curbs on medical devices and generics expose pandemic-era supply concentration?13%
- GlobalWhat if geopolitical curbs fragment the aerospace supply chain and squeeze Boeing and Airbus output?13%
- ChinaWhat if tit-for-tat duties on wine, spirits and luxury goods escalate an EU-US or EU-China trade dispute?13%
- Germany, South Korea +1What if export-dependent economies like Germany and Korea tip into recession?13%
- GlobalWhat if tariffs and decoupling sharply cut multinational corporate earnings?13%
- GlobalWhat if elevated US tariffs become a permanent fixture across administrations?13%
- GlobalWhat if sanctions and trade exclusion push frontier EMs into debt distress?13%
- China, IndiaWhat if security-driven pharma reshoring creates drug shortages and higher costs?13%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China declares a Taiwan Strait ADIZ over the median line?13%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA balloon and drone swarm overflights blanket Taiwan?13%
- RussiaWhat if Putin succession scramble freezes Russian policy?13%
- Poland, RussiaWhat if Russia probes the Suwalki corridor?13%
- GlobalWhat if Baltic undersea cable cut blacks out a region?13%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Transnistria flare-up reopens the Moldova front?13%
- RussiaWhat if Arctic shadow-fleet collision off Murmansk?13%
- RussiaWhat if Russia militarizes the Northern Sea Route?13%
- RussiaWhat if Georgia drifts to Moscow, severing a transit link?13%
- Hungary, RussiaWhat if Druzhba pipeline halt cuts crude to Central Europe?13%
- RussiaWhat if Russia weaponizes fertilizer and potash exports?13%
- GlobalWhat if Sabotage of a Baltic LNG terminal tightens EU gas?13%
- RussiaWhat if Ceasefire-force deployment draws Russian retaliation?13%
- RussiaWhat if Belarus deploys Russian nuclear weapons forward?13%
- RussiaWhat if Russia escalates the war economy and mobilization?13%
- RussiaWhat if Russian war economy overheats toward a crisis?13%
- RussiaWhat if Moldova destabilized by an energy and hybrid squeeze?13%
- RussiaWhat if European air-defense shortfall exposed by mass strikes?13%
- GlobalWhat if Sabotage cuts a Nordic-Baltic power interconnector?13%
- China, RussiaWhat if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?13%
- UkraineWhat if US-Europe rift over Ukraine fractures NATO?13%
- Iran, Israel +1What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?13%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon disarmament unlocks reconstruction aid?13%
- Turkey, SyriaWhat if Turkey-Syria normalization secures the border?13%
- Israel, EgyptWhat if East-Med gas pact links Israel, Egypt and Europe?13%
- GlobalWhat if an authoritarian seizes power in a large democracy?12%
- GlobalWhat if fusion energy hits its first commercial milestone?12%
- TaiwanWhat if a Chinese and Taiwanese warship collide mid-strait?12%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if the PLA fires on a Philippine resupply mission at Mischief Reef?12%
- RussiaWhat if Russia intervenes in Transnistria and threatens Moldova?12%
- LebanonWhat if Lebanon collapses into a stateless failed state?12%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if the coup belt spreads west to Senegal and Ivory Coast?12%
- Pakistan, AfghanistanWhat if the TTP carves out a statelet in Pakistan's northwest?12%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China declares an inspection zone in the Taiwan Strait?12%
- China, IranWhat if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?12%
- ChinaWhat if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?12%
- IranWhat if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?12%
- GlobalWhat if tariffs on industrial machinery and robots raise reshoring capital expenditure costs?12%
- ChinaWhat if forced decoupling strands China-exposed plants and IP for Western firms?12%
- GlobalWhat if a resource-nationalism wave sees producer states nationalize lithium, copper and nickel exports?12%
- GlobalWhat if sustained great-power tension forces European defense budgets toward 3-5% of GDP?12%
- GlobalWhat if trade and capital openness retrace decades of integration as security trumps efficiency?12%
- GlobalWhat if retaliation extends into services and digital trade via data-localization rules and digital taxes?12%
- ChinaWhat if Western tech export controls and Chinese mineral counter-controls escalate into a mutual export-control spiral?12%
- ChinaWhat if restrictions on Chinese-made cranes and port logistics tech force costly replacement across Western ports?12%
- GlobalWhat if fragmentation and reshoring permanently lift the structural inflation floor?12%
- ChinaWhat if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?12%
- ChinaWhat if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?12%
- China, South Korea +1What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?12%
- China, AustraliaWhat if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?12%
- China, MexicoWhat if the US tariffs Chinese electronics routed through Mexico?12%
- TaiwanWhat if CCG quarantines Matsu islands; Taipei calls it a soft blockade?12%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Chinese cyberattack dark-starts Taiwan's power grid?12%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if Hwasong-19 ICBM survives re-entry, ranging all of the US?12%
- South KoreaWhat if Deadly West Sea NLL naval clash off Yeonpyeong?12%
- South KoreaWhat if South Korea openly debates its own nuclear deterrent?12%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if Scarborough Shoal 'nature reserve' enforced as a China blockade?12%
- China, IndiaWhat if China-India LAC clash reignites in eastern Ladakh?12%
- KazakhstanWhat if CPC terminal sabotage triggers a prolonged outage?12%
- AzerbaijanWhat if BTC pipeline sabotage cuts Caspian crude to Ceyhan?12%
- UkraineWhat if Corn jumps as Ukraine planted area collapses?12%
- UkraineWhat if Mass missile barrage tests Ukraine air defenses?12%
- RussiaWhat if Kerch bridge strike reopens the southern theater?12%
- RussiaWhat if Cyberattack downs a European power grid node?12%
- UkraineWhat if Ukraine debt restructuring stalls amid the war?12%
- Russia, KazakhstanWhat if Kazakhstan-Russia transit dispute strands oil?12%
- RussiaWhat if Snapback sanctions deepen after a ceasefire breach?12%
- RussiaWhat if Shadow-fleet insurance crackdown strands Russian oil?12%
- IranWhat if Iran races to a crude nuclear device?12%
- Iran, Israel +1What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?12%
- Turkey, Lebanon +2What if Syria chaos triggers a new refugee wave?12%
- Turkey, Israel +1What if Turkey-Israel clash over Syria spills over?12%
- Israel, SyriaWhat if Israel-Syria deconfliction line holds?12%
- Saudi Arabia, YemenWhat if Yemen war reignites, Houthis hit Saudi oil again?12%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates +1What if Gulf states drawn directly into an Iran war?12%
- IranWhat if IAEA loses access as Iran ejects inspectors?12%
- Turkey, IsraelWhat if Turkey-Israel rapprochement restores energy ties?12%
- MexicoWhat if Cartel war shuts a major Mexican Pacific port?12%
- Mali, NigerWhat if Sahel jihadists seize a working uranium mine?12%
- United States, ChinaWhat if US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026?12%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if Trade-war détente sparks SOX/SMH melt-up?12%
- GlobalWhat if a cyberattack blacks out Europe's power grid?11%
- GlobalWhat if the US cut a major economy off from SWIFT?11%
- United StatesWhat if USMCA broke down and severed North American supply chains?11%
- AlgeriaWhat if a gas insurgency threatens Algeria's pipelines to Europe?11%
- ChinaWhat if China expands critical-mineral export controls in retaliation for tech restrictions?11%
- ChinaWhat if an intensified US-China tariff war tips export-dependent Asian economies into recession?11%
- GlobalWhat if a fresh G7 reserve freeze accelerates de-dollarization globally?11%
- United StatesWhat if global reserves split into Western and non-Western blocs?11%
- United StatesWhat if a credible BRICS settlement currency spooks Treasury investors?11%
- GlobalWhat if China bans rare-earth magnets for military end-users and disrupts Western missile and jet production?11%
- United States, China +1What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?11%
- GlobalWhat if chokepoint diversions and port congestion drive spot container rates up multiples?11%
- GlobalWhat if major economies abandon most-favored-nation treatment in favor of discriminatory bilateral deals?11%
- ChinaWhat if escalating EV-tariff disputes spiral into a broad EU-China trade conflict?11%
- GlobalWhat if a major EM under sanction pressure imposes capital controls and traps foreign investors?11%
- China, European Union +1What if a broad US-China rupture spanning trade, tech, finance and Taiwan hits simultaneously?11%
- GlobalWhat if acute geopolitical fragmentation drives reserve managers into gold and away from seizable financial assets?11%
- ChinaWhat if mandated removal of Chinese 5G equipment fragments the global telecom stack?11%
- ChinaWhat if controls on drones and dual-use sensors, met by Chinese counter-controls, disrupt defense supply chains?11%
- GlobalWhat if export controls and investment bans extend to quantum computing and advanced biotech?11%
- GlobalWhat if rival tech and regulatory standards fragment global trade invisibly?11%
- ChinaWhat if Beijing's Unreliable-Entity List penalises Western multinationals?11%
- GlobalWhat if synchronized global rearmament drives a defence-spending supercycle?11%
- GlobalWhat if dollar weaponisation gradually erodes its reserve-currency dominance?11%
- ChinaWhat if China builds a parallel demand bloc across the Global South?11%
- ChinaWhat if allied governments purge Chinese-linked port and logistics software?11%
- GlobalWhat if governments nationalize strategic firms to block foreign control?11%
- China, South Korea +1What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?11%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia detonates a tactical nuke in Ukraine?11%
- RussiaWhat if Russian regime change opens a reform window?11%
- GlobalWhat if Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant incident scare?11%
- RussiaWhat if Russia seizes Narva with 'little green men'?11%
- RussiaWhat if NATO shoots down Russian jets over the Baltic?11%
- PolandWhat if Poland invokes NATO Article 4 over border strikes?11%
- RussiaWhat if Russia tests a nuclear-capable system over the Arctic?11%
- RussiaWhat if Russia stages a false-flag to justify Baltic action?11%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?11%
- Saudi Arabia, IranWhat if Iran assembles a nuclear arsenal, Gulf goes nuclear?11%
- Turkey, AzerbaijanWhat if Armenia-Azerbaijan war reignites over a corridor?11%
- Saudi Arabia, Iran +1What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?11%
- IranWhat if US carrier strike group deters wider Gulf war?11%
- Saudi Arabia, IsraelWhat if Normalization stalls on a Gaza precondition?11%
- SyriaWhat if Syria partitions along sectarian lines?11%
- Iraq, JordanWhat if Cross-border strikes hit Jordan and Iraq energy links?11%
- GlobalWhat if Gulf war fear spikes the oil-vol surface?11%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if Tit-for-tat Israel-Iran direct strikes resume?11%
- GlobalWhat if Rwanda sanctions over M23 hit mineral transit?11%
- Mali, MyanmarWhat if Sahel-coast tension shuts a key transit corridor?11%
- NigeriaWhat if Nigeria farmer-herder violence widens in Middle Belt?11%
- GlobalWhat if terrorists attack a Western financial capital?10%
- RussiaWhat if Putin's sudden death sparks a struggle over Russia's nukes?10%
- TaiwanWhat if the PLA blockades fuel and power to Matsu?10%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if China starts building an island at Scarborough Shoal?10%
- South KoreaWhat if North Korea's regime collapses and its nuclear weapons go loose?10%
- South KoreaWhat if North Korean commandos infiltrate through DMZ tunnels?10%
- China, IndiaWhat if China and India fight a full mountain war in Ladakh?10%
- Israel, JordanWhat if an uprising destabilizes Jordan's monarchy?10%
- IranWhat if a second uprising topples Iran's regime?10%
- SudanWhat if Sudan splits into two rival recognised states?10%
- Russia, Iran +1What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?10%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a drone swarm strikes Saudi Arabia's oil heartland?10%
- GlobalWhat if a coordinated attack destroys multiple grid substations?10%
- Russia, TurkeyWhat if a grounded ship shuts the Bosphorus to exports?10%
- RussiaWhat if NATO blockades Russia's shadow oil fleet?10%
- ChinaWhat if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?10%
- United States, RussiaWhat if seizing frozen Russian reserves sets a precedent that splinters the reserve system?10%
- GlobalWhat if BRICS launches a working cross-border payment system to rival SWIFT?10%
- China, TaiwanWhat if a PRC invasion of Taiwan triggers sweeping sanctions on China and a global recession?10%
- ChinaWhat if major Chinese or Gulf banks are cut from US dollar clearing for sanctions breaches?10%
- China, RussiaWhat if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?10%
- Chile, DR Congo +1What if Indonesia, Chile or the DRC tighten nickel, lithium and cobalt export rules?10%
- Iran, IsraelWhat if a wider Israel-Iran or regional war threatens Gulf oil infrastructure and shipping?10%
- European UnionWhat if a cluster of great-power flashpoints repriced together lifts global risk premia and credit spreads?10%
- GlobalWhat if reciprocal sanctions between great powers escalate into a self-reinforcing spiral?10%
- GlobalWhat if banks over-comply with sanctions and freeze legitimate trade finance?10%
- GlobalWhat if a dominant producer weaponises strategic commodity stockpiles?10%
- GlobalWhat if mutual visa curbs fragment the global tech-talent pool?10%
- ChinaWhat if IP and patent regimes decouple across the US-China divide?10%
- GlobalWhat if trans-boundary water disputes escalate into trade and diplomatic friction?10%
- ChinaWhat if EU CBAM and copycat schemes hit China's carbon-intensive industrial exports?10%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA full naval blockade chokes Taiwan's 11-day LNG buffer?10%
- TaiwanWhat if Matsu internet blackout after both subsea cables cut?10%
- China, TaiwanWhat if Beijing imposes a naval 'inspection zone' on Taiwan shipping?10%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea tests a tactical nuke for short-range missiles?10%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea demonstrates a MIRV warhead bus on its ICBM?10%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korean artillery hits a South Korean border island?10%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea GPS-jams South Korean airspace and shipping?10%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if China builds artificial structures on Scarborough Shoal?10%
- China, VietnamWhat if China-Vietnam clash at Vanguard Bank over oil drilling?10%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA seizes a Taiwan outlying island; Strait LNG insurers exit?10%
- DenmarkWhat if US-Denmark rift over Greenland sovereignty?10%
- RussiaWhat if Russia-NATO clash spikes Brent above $100?10%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Wheat gaps lower on a surprise corridor deal?10%
- RussiaWhat if Naval clash in the Black Sea draws in NATO?10%
- AzerbaijanWhat if Caspian platform attack halts Azeri gas to Europe?10%
- Turkey, Israel +1What if Israeli strikes deep in Syria draw Turkish ire?10%
- Turkey, Iraq +1What if Turkey-PKK peace process unravels?10%
- IsraelWhat if West Bank flares into a third intifada?10%
- EcuadorWhat if Ecuador oil blockade by protesters cuts exports?10%
- GlobalWhat if Guyana coast incident disrupts Stabroek FPSO output?10%
- VenezuelaWhat if Venezuela invades Guyana to seize its oil?9%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea agrees to phased denuclearisation?9%
- PakistanWhat if a coup in Pakistan puts its nuclear arsenal in doubt?9%
- EgyptWhat if a coup in Egypt threatens transit through the Suez Canal?9%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China quarantines Taiwan by inspecting every inbound ship?9%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China severs Taiwan's undersea internet cables?9%
- ChinaWhat if a US destroyer and a PLA warship collide near the Spratlys?9%
- United States, ChinaWhat if Washington and Beijing freeze each other's sovereign assets?9%
- ChinaWhat if China bars foreign chip engineers from leaving?9%
- Poland, RussiaWhat if Russian troops cross into Poland and trigger Article 5?9%
- RussiaWhat if Russia sinks a NATO-flagged ship in the Black Sea?9%
- China, JapanWhat if China lands forces on the Japan-administered Senkakus?9%
- Turkey, Saudi Arabia +2What if Iran tests a nuclear weapon and breaks out?9%
- YemenWhat if the Houthis sink a US destroyer in the Red Sea?9%
- MexicoWhat if cartels openly capture a northern Mexican state?9%
- IranWhat if Iran mines and fully closes the Strait of Hormuz?9%
- ChinaWhat if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?9%
- ChinaWhat if the US extends HBM memory curbs further downstream?9%
- ChinaWhat if the US cuts off chip-design software to China?9%
- ChinaWhat if China reinstates a full gallium and germanium ban?9%
- China, NetherlandsWhat if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?9%
- China, Japan +1What if Japan weaponizes its photoresist and etching-gas exports?9%
- JapanWhat if steep US tariffs on autos gut Japan's largest export sector?9%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab EmiratesWhat if Saudi Arabia and the UAE are drawn into a regional war threatening their own exports?9%
- ChinaWhat if the mBridge CBDC platform scales for commodity settlement outside the dollar?9%
- GlobalWhat if de-dollarization headlines trigger a scramble out of dollar reserves into gold?9%
- United StatesWhat if foreign demand for Treasuries gaps lower and forces a steep term-premium concession?9%
- ChinaWhat if reserve managers push the dollar's share below 55% by buying renminbi and gold?9%
- ChinaWhat if a Gulf producer invoices oil to China in yuan, cracking the petrodollar?9%
- GlobalWhat if the dollar's share of global reserves drifts below 50%?9%
- ChinaWhat if China halts gallium and germanium exports and disrupts chip and fiber-optic production worldwide?9%
- RussiaWhat if G7 reserve freezes on a major economy prompt reserve managers worldwide to diversify away from seizable assets?9%
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab EmiratesWhat if an Abqaiq-scale strike on Saudi or UAE oil facilities removes millions of barrels per day?9%
- Ukraine, Russia +1What if a Russia-NATO incident raises European war-risk premia and energy prices?9%
- MaliWhat if coups and conflict across the Sahel disrupt uranium, gold and cocoa supply chains?9%
- GlobalWhat if security curbs split the global cloud and data-centre market?9%
- GlobalWhat if an accelerating Indo-Pacific arms race widens fiscal deficits?9%
- GlobalWhat if great-power competition over Arctic routes and resources escalates?9%
- GlobalWhat if the world splits into rival tech-and-monetary blocs with incompatible systems?9%
- China, Japan +1What if the US and allies formalise a multilateral chip export-control regime against China?9%
- GlobalWhat if CBAM-affected exporters retaliate and spark a green trade war?9%
- TaiwanWhat if Undersea cables to Taiwan severed by 'fishing' vessels?9%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA 'Joint Sword' drill encircles Taiwan, halts air corridors?9%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China tightens gallium/germanium ban on chip toolmakers?9%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan cable cuts plus ADIZ trigger a marine-insurance freeze?9%
- PhilippinesWhat if CCG water cannon injures Philippine sailors at Ayungin?9%
- ChinaWhat if South China Sea tanker incident spikes Brent war-risk premium?9%
- South Korea, North Korea +1What if Simultaneous Taiwan + Korea crises overwhelm US bandwidth?9%
- Japan, South Korea +1What if North Korea ICBM overflies Japan, triggering J-Alert sirens?9%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan grey-zone squeeze drives a structural TSM risk discount?9%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China mines approaches to a Taiwan port in coercion campaign?9%
- China, JapanWhat if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?9%
- RussiaWhat if NATO-Russia Article 5 invocation?9%
- IranWhat if Iran mines the Strait after a failed deal?9%
- Israel, LebanonWhat if Hezbollah opens a full northern front on Israel?9%
- ChinaWhat if US-China truce collapses at the tariff cliff?9%
- GlobalWhat if Truce holds on tariffs but chip war re-escalates?9%
- NetherlandsWhat if US slaps Section-232 semiconductor tariff at 25%?9%
- ChinaWhat if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?9%
- GlobalWhat if Chip-war shock drives 20% SOX drawdown?9%
- ChinaWhat if NVDA China-revenue cliff on new license freeze?9%
- ChinaWhat if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?9%
- ChinaWhat if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?9%
- ChinaWhat if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?9%
- United States, ChinaWhat if China dumped its US Treasury holdings as a weapon?8%
- GlobalWhat if a dollar crisis forces a new Bretton Woods reset?8%
- GlobalWhat if space-based solar power finally becomes viable?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if the PLA seizes Taiwan's Kinmen islands?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China attempts a decapitation strike on Taipei?8%
- ChinaWhat if a PLA jet shoots down a US surveillance plane over the Spratlys?8%
- Russia, NorwayWhat if Russia militarizes Svalbard and tests Norway's NATO guarantee?8%
- EthiopiaWhat if Ethiopia fractures into a multi-front civil war?8%
- EgyptWhat if bread riots and an army split convulse Egypt?8%
- GlobalWhat if a mass-casualty attack hits a major Western airport?8%
- QatarWhat if sabotage severs the Gulf's undersea gas pipelines?8%
- IranWhat if an Iran-backed Shia uprising erupts in Bahrain?8%
- United States, ChinaWhat if China cuts its US Treasury holdings below $700 billion?8%
- United KingdomWhat if multiple central banks repatriate gold from New York and London vaults?8%
- China, RussiaWhat if China and Russia complete a full shift to yuan and rouble trade settlement?8%
- GlobalWhat if a systemically important economy is cut off from SWIFT?8%
- GlobalWhat if oil below $50 sharply shrinks petrodollar recycling into Treasuries?8%
- ChinaWhat if petrostates recycle surpluses into gold and yuan instead of Treasuries?8%
- GlobalWhat if a bloc of countries explores gold-referenced trade settlement to bypass the dollar?8%
- United StatesWhat if non-Western central banks shift reserve custody outside G7 jurisdictions?8%
- GlobalWhat if major commodity exporters and importers agree to invoice raw materials outside the dollar?8%
- United Kingdom, TaiwanWhat if a PLA blockade of Taiwan halts advanced-chip output and major container traffic?8%
- TaiwanWhat if rising Taiwan tensions spike war-risk insurance and reroute container and tanker traffic?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China imposes a customs quarantine on Taiwan that throttles chip flows below the threshold for Western military response?8%
- RussiaWhat if the West confiscates frozen Russian central-bank assets and accelerates EM reserve de-Westernization?8%
- GlobalWhat if a large economy is expelled from SWIFT over a geopolitical rupture?8%
- GlobalWhat if conflict in the Strait of Malacca chokes 25% of world traded goods?8%
- South KoreaWhat if a North Korean military crisis disrupts South Korean chip, auto and shipbuilding output?8%
- GlobalWhat if conflict on NATO's eastern flank triggers Article 5 mobilization and a European risk-off shock?8%
- United States, ChinaWhat if US-China relations freeze into a permanent cold-war footing?8%
- China, India +1What if India clashes militarily with Pakistan or China on its borders?8%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan, the Middle East and Eastern Europe escalate simultaneously?8%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if EU CBAM extends to petrochemicals and penalises Gulf exporters' carbon intensity?8%
- Netherlands, TaiwanWhat if PLA blockade forces TSMC fab idling; global chip shock?8%
- South Korea, TaiwanWhat if Fatal PLA-Taiwan air collision near the median line?8%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA missile splashes in Taiwan's waters off Kaohsiung port?8%
- TaiwanWhat if Fatal CCG ramming of a Taiwan coast-guard vessel off Kinmen?8%
- China, JapanWhat if Fatal China-Japan air-sea incident near the Senkakus?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?8%
- ChinaWhat if PLA fighter weapons-locks a US recon plane over the SCS?8%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea high-altitude nuclear test over the Pacific?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if PLA seizes Taiwan-held Itu Aba in the Spratlys?8%
- China, VietnamWhat if China-Vietnam oil-rig standoff sparks Hanoi anti-China riots?8%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China imposes a Taiwan no-fly zone, halting commercial aviation?8%
- China, South Korea +2What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?8%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA grey-zone blockade triggers a Taiwan capital flight and TWD crisis?8%
- IranWhat if Iranian regime collapse, fattest oil tail to $150?8%
- IranWhat if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?7%
- China, TaiwanWhat if China blockades Taiwan and chokes the chip supply?7%
- RussiaWhat if a missile on NATO soil triggers Article 5?7%
- GlobalWhat if a military coup topples a major G20 emerging economy?7%
- GlobalWhat if an anti-satellite strike knocks out GPS and comms?7%
- RussiaWhat if Russian jets shoot down a NATO aircraft over the Baltic?7%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea shells Seoul's suburbs?7%
- China, IndiaWhat if the PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh?7%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if Russia detonates a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?7%
- South KoreaWhat if South Korea quits the NPT and goes nuclear?7%
- ChinaWhat if China's robotic satellite disables a US spy satellite in orbit?7%
- ChinaWhat if US and Chinese spacecraft square off near the Moon?7%
- United Arab Emirates, IranWhat if Iranian strikes knock Abu Dhabi's crude exports offline?7%
- GlobalWhat if a US Gulf Coast LNG export terminal is bombed?7%
- GlobalWhat if truck bombs hit two cities' financial districts at once?7%
- EgyptWhat if a mega-ship blocks the Suez Canal again?7%
- ChinaWhat if a Western bloc cuts Chinese banks off from SWIFT?7%
- Ukraine, RussiaWhat if a chip-grade neon gas shortage halts lithography?7%
- GlobalWhat if a freeze in letters of credit halts global trade?7%
- IndiaWhat if India scales rupee settlement for oil and defense imports broadly?7%
- ChinaWhat if a major commodity exporter shifts contracts away from dollar invoicing?7%
- GlobalWhat if global payments split into dollar-clearing and CIPS-aligned blocs?7%
- ChinaWhat if China's CIPS gains critical mass as a sanctions-resilient SWIFT alternative?7%
- GlobalWhat if threats to cut a large economy from dollar clearing trigger pre-emptive de-dollarization?7%
- GlobalWhat if low oil forces Gulf sovereign-wealth funds to sell US assets to plug fiscal gaps?7%
- RussiaWhat if petrostates spend reserves defending currency pegs and drain the Treasury buyer pool?7%
- ChinaWhat if a large economy converts dollar reserves into gold and commodities to dodge sanctions?7%
- ChinaWhat if China's bilateral swap-line web gives partners a viable dollar-light liquidity backstop?7%
- GlobalWhat if G7 seizes windfall profits from frozen reserves and cements a confiscation precedent?7%
- GlobalWhat if non-aligned economies pool reserves to insure against dollar weaponization?7%
- TaiwanWhat if a Taiwan contingency cuts off TSMC advanced-node supply and freezes global electronics production?7%
- GlobalWhat if a naval standoff in East Asia disrupts container and tanker routes?7%
- GlobalWhat if PLA Navy fires warning shots at US destroyer in the Strait?7%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA amphibious mobilization triggers a Taiwan invasion scare?7%
- United States, PhilippinesWhat if Filipino sailor killed at Second Thomas; MDT Article IV invoked?7%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if US-China confrontation after MDT activation over Manila?7%
- China, PhilippinesWhat if Limited PLA-Philippine firefight at a contested Spratly reef?7%
- Netherlands, TaiwanWhat if PLA blockade idles fabs; global AI buildout stalls on chip famine?7%
- South KoreaWhat if North-South war scare empties Seoul markets in a capital flight?7%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea satellite launch doubles as an ICBM provocation?7%
- ChinaWhat if Xi Jinping is suddenly incapacitated?6%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if the Saudi crown prince is assassinated?6%
- GlobalWhat if a European head of state is assassinated by an extremist?6%
- GlobalWhat if a major member quits the EU and fractures the euro?6%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan declares independence and upends the global order?6%
- GlobalWhat if asteroid mining crashes the outlook for a key metal?6%
- GlobalWhat if a Kessler debris cascade renders key orbits unusable?6%
- TaiwanWhat if China launches a full invasion of Taiwan?6%
- RussiaWhat if Russia grabs the Suwalki corridor to reach Kaliningrad?6%
- RussiaWhat if Russian and NATO forces trade fire at Estonia's border?6%
- Saudi Arabia, PakistanWhat if Saudi Arabia buys nuclear warheads from Pakistan?6%
- GlobalWhat if state hackers poison a major city's water supply?6%
- GlobalWhat if a nation-state shuts down US gas pipelines nationwide?6%
- Iran, IraqWhat if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?6%
- GlobalWhat if tankers are attacked in the Strait of Malacca?6%
- GlobalWhat if a tanker collision closes the Strait of Malacca?6%
- DenmarkWhat if a lock failure shuts down the Kiel Canal?6%
- GlobalWhat if an escalating tariff war tips the US into recession and lifts bank charge-offs?6%
- Japan, TaiwanWhat if a Taiwan Strait contingency severs Japan's chip and trade links to the region?6%
- GlobalWhat if dollar stablecoin rails route trade around correspondent banking in sanctioned corridors?6%
- GlobalWhat if global banks pull back dollar trade-finance lines and choke EM import financing?6%
- GlobalWhat if sanctions push a major trade corridor onto non-dollar invoicing within months?6%
- China, Russia +1What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?6%
- Iran, YemenWhat if Hormuz and the Red Sea are disrupted simultaneously and overwhelm rerouting capacity?6%
- United States, VenezuelaWhat if a Latin American resource dispute disrupts commodity supply?6%
- TaiwanWhat if Taiwan invasion attempt triggers a global market crash?6%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea sinks a South Korean patrol boat in the West Sea?6%
- TaiwanWhat if PLA missile barrage on Taiwan airfields opens a kinetic conflict?6%
- Saudi ArabiaWhat if a palace coup topples the House of Saud?5%
- GlobalWhat if a major spiritual leader is assassinated?5%
- South Korea, North KoreaWhat if North Korea detonates a nuclear EMP over South Korea's grid?5%
- China, IndiaWhat if India strikes China's mega-dam on the Brahmaputra?5%
- India, PakistanWhat if militants seize a Pakistani nuclear warhead?5%
- GlobalWhat if a cyberattack blacks out the US Eastern grid?5%
- TaiwanWhat if a geopolitical rupture over Taiwan sparks global dollar-funding stress?5%
- GlobalWhat if a wave of correspondent-banking withdrawals cuts dollar access for whole regions?5%
- GlobalWhat if the US President is assassinated?4%
- GlobalWhat if a coordinated attack targets G7 leaders at a summit?4%
- GlobalWhat if a systemically important tech CEO is assassinated?4%
- GlobalWhat if a rival jams and blinds US GPS satellites?4%
- GlobalWhat if a central-bank governor is assassinated mid-crisis?3%