Wars, powers, sanctions and the world order — the shocks that move everything else.
Brussels and member states fund a wartime-footing expansion of shell, missile, and air-defense production, a multi-year orders boom for Rheinmetall, Thales, and Saab.
A prolonged RSF siege of el-Fasher tips Darfur into mass famine, deepening Sudan's catastrophe and pushing more gold output into unregulated channels.
Accelerating displacement from Sudan overwhelms Chad and South Sudan, deepening a regional humanitarian crisis and lifting Sahel-to-Horn instability risk.