What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
A ceasefire lets Russia reconstitute its military for a future offensive, keeping European defense spending elevated even as near-term war risk eases.
Wars, powers, sanctions and the world order — the shocks that move everything else.
A ceasefire lets Russia reconstitute its military for a future offensive, keeping European defense spending elevated even as near-term war risk eases.
The EU finalizes its exit from Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel, structurally lowering its energy-security risk premium and supporting industrial competitiveness.
The EU builds independent defense-industrial capacity and command structures to hedge wavering US commitment, a multi-year structural bid for European defense and industry.