Oil supply risk
Every scenario in which oil supply risk is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
601 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
55%▼ 1–3 years
What if Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind?
55%▼ 1–3 years
What if Suez traffic recovery rebuilds Egypt's reserves?
55%▼ 1–3 years
What if Andean oil cooperation restores Ecuador exports?
53%▼ 1–3 years
What if AU secures funding to hold Mogadishu?
52%▼ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela reopening drags Gulf-Coast heavy-crude spreads?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Pemex turnaround eases Mexican sovereign-risk overhang?
49%▼ 3–10 years
What if Guyana-Suriname offshore turns the Guianas into an oil hub?
47%▲ 1–3 years
What if Abu Dhabi's AAA-anchored credit tightens UAE spreads further?
46%▲ 0–6 months
What if drone strikes cripple a fifth of Russia's refining?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Europe's refineries shut down and leave it short of diesel?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if EU bans Russian LNG, JKM and TTF tighten?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent back above fiscal breakeven balances the Saudi budget?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led product pull drags crude higher despite ample supply?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela transition fragments, migration surges north?
43%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gulf of Guinea piracy resurges off Nigeria-Benin?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if US shale output plateaus as Tier-1 inventory thins?
41%▲ 3–10 years
What if the Permian rolls into a steep multi-year decline?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sanctioned Russian crude floods Asia, global glut?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if OPEC+ spare capacity dwindles below 2 mb/d?
40%▲ 0–6 months
What if a major hurricane shuts in Gulf of Mexico oil and gas?
40%▼ 3–10 years
What if Comprehensive sanctions relief reopens Russia to trade?
40%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ethiopia-Eritrea sea-access deal averts war?
40%▼ 6–18 months
What if Nigeria oil-theft crackdown lifts export volumes?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?
40%▼ 6–18 months
What if South Sudan pipeline reopening restores crude flows?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if US rig count drops as sub-$60 WTI kills marginal drilling?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if a summer-spec switch squeezes US gasoline supplies?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cushing tank-bottoms flip WTI into steep backwardation?
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if Upstream capex starvation seeds the next supply crunch?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-backed influx destabilizes Trinidad and Guyana?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Middle East normalization lowers oil risk premium?
38%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent above $90 re-funds Saudi Vision 2030 spending?
38%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-gasoline spread widens as winter heating bites?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Permian water and takeaway limits throttle output growth?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Norway and UK North Sea decline shrinks Brent deliverables?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Permian gas glut depresses associated-oil economics?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan's Tengiz FGP ramp adds 260kb/d of crude?
36%▼ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana ICJ ruling defuses Essequibo?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Saudi fiscal breakeven forces deeper cuts to defend price?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Product-led crude pull as crack spreads outrun flat price?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Depleted SPR removes the West's emergency supply cushion?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil-price spike reflates energy-equity earnings and lifts XLE?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Panama Canal drought chokes off LPG shipments?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
33%▼ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ floods the market below Saudi's fiscal breakeven?
33%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent strength supercharges UAE sovereign-fund inflows?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if a Pemex bailout drags down Mexico's sovereign rating?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if OPEC vs IEA demand-forecast gap fuels a volatility spike?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if IMO low-sulfur rules re-tighten the middle-distillate balance?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil-supply shock sends jet fuel up 50% and grounds airline margins?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if a refinery turnaround wave triggers a US diesel shortage?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Saudi spare-capacity buffer caps oil-price spikes?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if XLE rallies as a supply scare reflates energy earnings?
31%▲ 3–10 years
What if Underinvestment crunch lifts long-dated Brent above $90?
30%▲ Imminent
What if the Red Sea needs naval convoys to move trade?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ discipline holds Brent in a fiscally comfortable band?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger Delta sabotage cuts Nigerian crude exports again?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil-major buyback acceleration on a windfall price spike?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent surge widens Turkey's energy-import bill and lira gap?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kenya geothermal expansion cuts the fuel-import bill?
29%▲ 0–6 months
What if Brent spike to $110 sinks the rupee to record lows?
29%▲ 0–6 months
What if Inventory draws flip the curve back into backwardation?
29%▲ 0–6 months
What if OECD commercial stocks drop to a five-year low?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if low water paralyses the Rhine, Mississippi and Panama Canal?
28%▲ 0–6 months
What if a travel boom collides with a jet fuel crunch?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if a shale capital strike freezes US drilling?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Saudi Brent-above-$100 windfall reflates the whole Gulf?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance dragnet strands 1 mb/d of Russian crude?
28%▲ 0–6 months
What if Nigerian force-majeure outage cuts 0.4 mb/d of Bonny Light?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if North Sea outage cluster tightens the Brent basket?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ adds a new mega-cut to mop up the 2026 surplus?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico Pemex output slide flips it to a net crude importer?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Spare-capacity illusion exposed as real buffers fall short?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Coordinated OPEC+ cut snaps Brent back above $80?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil-windfall buyback acceleration shrinks energy-major share counts?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Druzhba pipeline is severed for good?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Lebanon ceasefire collapses and Israel bombs Beirut?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if a renewed Gaza war spills across the region?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if France reinstates the age-64 pension reform after 2027?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil-driven inflation relapse re-stresses MENA importers?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Oversupplied oil market squeezes high-breakeven Gulf budgets?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Libyan blockade force-majeure pulls 0.7 mb/d offline?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ exit-strategy confusion sparks an oil-volatility spike?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz gas-feedstock cost-push spikes Middle-East urea?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing oil in yuan?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if surging oil imports blow out India's current-account deficit?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent jump deepens Egypt's twin-deficit strain?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike real-income squeeze dents consumer demand?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gas-spike windfall lifts XLE on integrated upstream leverage?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mideast escalation spikes oil and hits airlines while lifting defense?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-price spike real-income squeeze dents discretionary demand?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Israel and Saudi Arabia normalise relations?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Colombia's no-new-oil policy hollows out reserves?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Brent spike hammers Kenya's oil-import bill?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan repeatedly busts its OPEC+ output quota?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cat-4 Gulf-of-Mexico hurricane shuts in 1.5 mb/d offshore?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks structurally elevated?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cushing draw flips WTI to a premium over Brent?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China sign a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gulf deconfliction protocol secures tanker lanes?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sahel jihadist offensive cuts Mali gold roads?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gulf gas-to-power build-out frees more crude for export?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike terms-of-trade shock hits EM importer FX?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock inflation flattens the curve via a hawkish hold?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Supply cliff after the glut snaps the market into deficit?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Egypt-Trinidad ammonia outages tighten the nitrogen market?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Energy-equity volatility spikes as oil whipsaws on supply headlines?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Strategic-reserve coordination caps any Hormuz spike?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peace dividend narrows Brent-WTI back to freight?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Twin oil-and-flows shock pushes rupee past 92 per dollar?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-price spike triggers a Pakistan BoP relapse?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iraq federal-Kurdish dispute halts 0.4 mb/d via Ceyhan?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Coordinated SPR release caps a supply-driven price spike?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Manila-Beijing 'gentlemen's agreement' calms the SCS for a year?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Pipeline bypass routes blunt the Hormuz weapon?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Arctic resource scramble raises great-power friction?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Angola oil-output decline structurally erodes revenue?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Wildfire shut-ins cut 0.5 mb/d of Canadian oil-sands output?
21%▼ 3–10 years
What if China-Vietnam agree a joint development zone in disputed seas?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Quad maritime-security pact stabilizes Indo-Pacific sea lanes?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China joint patrols ease South China Sea tanker war-risk?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brent-Dubai spread collapses as Gulf flows resume?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gaza reconstruction unlocked under truce?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks choke Bab-el-Mandeb shipping?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sanctions snapback removes Venezuelan barrels again?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes oil and vol?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if SSA terms-of-trade collapse as oil rises and metals fall?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear sites and Iran retaliates?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Indian rupee gaps past 100 to the dollar?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi missiles seal the Bab el-Mandeb strait?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US imposes full secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if a cheap drone swarm strikes critical infrastructure?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz mines cleared, flows normalize?
20%▼ 3–10 years
What if Multi-year Mideast calm compresses the structural risk premium?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pemex output collapse turns Mexico a net oil importer?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Angola arrears to oil-service firms signal stress?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nigeria insecurity premium keeps oil output capped?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Angola oil-output miss undercuts a budget built on high prices?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Nigeria oil-output shortfall reopens external-financing gap?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if OPEC+ surprise re-cut snaps Brent up $12 in a week?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Refinery fire removes 0.4 mb/d of US Gulf-Coast capacity?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if OPEC+ surprises markets with a deep production cut?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if unrest collapses Nigerian and Libyan oil output at once?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if drought at Panama and disruption at Suez hit at once?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if a remittance collapse hits the Philippine economy?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if Libya's oil ports fall under blockade again?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brent near $60 widens Saudi Arabia's budget deficit and forces a debt surge?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Moscow retaliates for frozen-asset loan?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan opens a Trans-Caspian bypass route?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Zangezur/TRIPP route opens Caspian-Europe transit?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela sanctions snapback strips 0.8 mb/d of heavy crude?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Energy-price spike plus credit stress tips consumers into recession?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brent sinks as a ceasefire restores Russian flows?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Price-cap removal eases Russian crude back to market?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Black Sea demined, shipping and insurance normalize?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russia's National Wealth Fund buffer runs dry?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russia's reintegration eases EM commodity-import costs?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief returns 1.5mbd to market?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Saudi-led OPEC+ taper rebuilds market share?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gulf freight and insurance normalize post-truce?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Rebuilt OPEC+ spare capacity caps the war premium?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Regional truce drains the Brent geopolitical premium?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-and-growth shock drains Sri Lanka's fragile reserves?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Kashagan output step-up lifts Kazakh export capacity?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Nigeria's naira re-floats as the official-parallel gap reopens?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-price spike batters commodity-importer EM currencies?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Kazakh CPC pipeline outage strands 1 mb/d at Novorossiysk?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Polar-vortex freeze-off shuts in US wellhead supply?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf hurricane shuts in offshore gas, Henry Hub jumps?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Global diesel tightness lifts ICE gasoil to a structural premium?
18%▼ 3–10 years
What if Iran opening and reintegration ease oil-supply risk (good)?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if India and Pakistan trade strikes over Kashmir?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a tanker and close the Suez route?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if civil war in a major oil producer cuts off supply?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if VLCC tanker day-rates explode to record highs?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if De-escalation flips Brent into contango glut?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran-deal sanctions relief revives tanker oversupply?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if South China Sea clash jolts global shipping?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Saudi voluntary-cut extension props Brent back above $80?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-import spike widens Bangladesh's external deficit?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil spike is a shared BoP shock for South Asian importers?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if CPC pipeline outage halts ~80% of Kazakh oil exports?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Stagflation oil shock, Brent jumps with growth rolling over?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Oil+gas double-shock stagflation: CPI tops 6%, growth halves?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peace-dividend disinflation: lower defense needs ease price pressure?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if a US-Iran nuclear deal reopens Iranian oil?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if a dramatic US move on the SPR jolts crude prices?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if a widening deficit forces another record Saudi debt wave?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Brent below $60 revives fears for Saudi Arabia's dollar peg?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Iraq openly busts its OPEC+ production quota?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Ecuador breaks down into a narco-state?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if a disorderly carbon-price jump to $200/t abruptly reprices fossil assets?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if RUB rallies on ceasefire and sanctions thaw?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Yamal LNG stranded as EU ban bites?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia full gas cutoff via Ukraine and TurkStream?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran HEU ship-out deal for sanctions relief?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gaza truce collapses into a wider war?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hezbollah rejects disarmament, north reignites?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Saudi-Israel talks collapse, Tadawul de-rates?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz transit insurance normalizes after standoff?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Calmer Gulf lets OPEC+ unwind cuts smoothly?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Insurers lift the Gulf war-zone tag as calm returns?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gulf-Iran economic interdependence dampens conflict?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gulf de-escalation deflates the oil-vol surface?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Mideast calm plus OPEC+ supply tips oil into a buyer's market?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if AUSSOM funding gap lets al-Shabaab encircle Mogadishu?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger Delta militancy reignites, cutting Nigeria crude?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Geopolitical oil-corridor scare spikes India's import-cost tail?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if CPC outage spikes Brent and rattles CEE energy importers?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sanctions on Russian products tighten the global diesel market?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a pipeline cyberattack sparks East Coast fuel shortages?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if ransomware forces another major fuel pipeline shutdown?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Boko Haram and ISWAP overrun northern Nigerian cities?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Turkey storms east of the Euphrates against the SDF?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if an oil-price spike widens India's current-account deficit and pressures the rupee?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Middle East tensions add a persistent $15 per barrel risk premium to Brent?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and spikes crude and gas prices?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if an orderly net-zero path steadily reprices utilities as carbon nears $800 per tonne?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Shadow-fleet tanker spill in the Baltic?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Kazakhstan CPC pipeline outage spikes Brent?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran-deal oil overhang caps Brent near $60?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran proxy network rolled back across the region?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran rejoins NPT safeguards in full?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iranian condensate return softens the product complex?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-Iran prisoner-and-funds deal opens dialogue?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if al-Shabaab overruns a Somali regional capital?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Egypt's pound slides as Red Sea toll revenue craters?
15%▼ 0–6 months
What if Venezuela sanctions relief sticks, Chevron crude returns?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela strikes Stabroek, hitting ExxonMobil oil?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Essequibo annexation push escalates with Guyana?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ecuador fiscal strain reignites default fears?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Saudi-Russia OPEC+ rift sends Brent into a price war?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if BTC pipeline disruption curbs Azeri crude exports?
15%▼ 6–18 months
What if Kazakh and Azeri output growth deepens an oil glut?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Brent spikes $15 on a stacked outage cluster?
14%▼ 0–6 months
What if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Keystone pipeline rupture strands Canadian crude?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kuwait becomes the next country to quit OPEC?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russia walks away from the OPEC+ alliance?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if a frac-sand shortage stalls US shale output?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if a shadow-fleet tanker breaks apart at sea?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Houthis close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait entirely?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Somali piracy resurges and reroutes global shipping?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if a broader Middle East war removes 4 million barrels per day and sends Brent to $160?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if marine war-risk underwriters suspend Gulf transit cover and strand oil cargoes?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if soft global demand and resilient non-OPEC supply build a large oil inventory glut?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf oil flows and spikes Brent above $120?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap removes barrels and lifts freight costs?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Strikes on Russian crude export terminals spike Brent?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kazakhstan unrest threatens energy exports?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Armenia-Azerbaijan war reignites over Syunik?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Turkey brokers a durable Caucasus settlement?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian palladium and nickel export ban hits metals?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia oil price-cap enforcement tightens supply?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia oil-export disruption tightens the global balance?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if US-Israeli strikes hit Fordow and Natanz?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran enters verified nuclear freeze?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Saudi mega-cut sends Brent back above $90?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente holds and deepens?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Saudi capacity expansion adds a structural cushion?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gulf air-defense shield neutralizes the drone threat?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia seizes Assab, war with Eritrea erupts?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if US strikes targets in Nigeria over persecution claim?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela oil sabotage spikes amid power struggle?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eritrea aligns with Egypt-Somalia axis versus Ethiopia?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mali-Algeria tensions flare over Tuareg rebels?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sudan war spills into South Sudan oilfields?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eritrea closes its coast, squeezing Ethiopian trade?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kazakh unrest over fuel prices threatens energy exports?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Caspian storm shuts Kazakh CPC loadings for weeks?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led freight inflation: distillate squeeze lifts core goods?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iran domestic unrest raises oil-supply and regional risk?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ fractures and Saudi Arabia launches a price war?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if post-Maduro Venezuela splinters into an oil war?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brent above $130 forces central banks to delay rate cuts as inflation reaccelerates?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if Saudi Arabia abandons output restraint and floods the market to defend share?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ discipline breaks and members ramp output into a price war near $45?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight global refining and low distillate stocks spike diesel and jet-fuel prices?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if maximum-pressure enforcement strips roughly 1.5mb/d of Iranian crude from the market?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if a shadow-fleet and barter network erodes sanctions efficacy and creates hidden counterparty exposures?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ leverages a geopolitical rift to enforce deep production cuts and spike crude?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if IEA net-zero demand assumptions strand proven oil and gas reserves?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Arctic shadow-fleet collision off Murmansk?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Georgia drifts to Moscow, severing a transit link?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Druzhba pipeline halt cuts crude to Central Europe?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if OPEC+ discipline fractures into a Saudi price push?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf war premium ignites a tanker rate super-spike?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gaza war escalates into a multi-front Israel war?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Spare-capacity buffer evaporates in a Gulf shock?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Twin Gulf-Coast hurricanes knock out refining for a month?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Super-backwardation signals an acute prompt-crude squeeze?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Permian gas takeaway maxes out, then a freeze inverts Waha to HH?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Distillate-tightness shock lifts global diesel above $130/bbl?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stagflation EM contagion: importers squeezed by oil and a strong dollar?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if drone strikes again cripple Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil hub?
12%▼ 3–10 years
What if fusion energy hits its first commercial milestone?
12%▼ 3–10 years
What if a policy shock strands fossil assets and pops the carbon bubble?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Denmark closes its straits to Russia's shadow fleet?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if sabotage knocks out the TurkStream gas pipeline mid-winter?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if militants attack the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Saudi Arabia floods the market to crush US shale?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if OPEC+ unwinds all its output cuts at once?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Kazakhstan's overproduction provokes a Saudi backlash?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US sanctions Chinese banks over Iran's oil?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a popular uprising topples Iran's Islamic Republic?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if an Israel-Iran exchange targeting energy infrastructure drives Brent above $120?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape and tighten crude supply?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if a prompt supply scare drives Brent into steep backwardation and squeezes refiners?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a state-sponsored cyber attack disrupts SCADA systems at Gulf export facilities?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if green-transition demand and supply underinvestment drive a broad commodity super-cycle?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if oil falling to the $30s triggers a US energy default wave?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if stranded fossil assets trigger a structural energy credit crisis?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if the US introduces an economy-wide carbon price near $100 per tonne?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if intensifying storms damage offshore energy infrastructure in the Gulf and North Sea?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if CPC terminal sabotage triggers a prolonged outage?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if BTC pipeline sabotage cuts Caspian crude to Ceyhan?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Kerch bridge strike reopens the southern theater?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kazakhstan-Russia transit dispute strands oil?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Snapback sanctions deepen after a ceasefire breach?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance crackdown strands Russian oil?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iran races to a crude nuclear device?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz tanker attacks reopen the war-risk bid?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beirut-Tel Aviv war goes deep and long?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey-Israel clash over Syria spills over?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Gold drops as oil-shock fear premium unwinds?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran retaliation hits Saudi and UAE oil terminals?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf cyber strike disrupts oil-loading systems?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf escalation steepens Brent backwardation?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf shock spikes diesel and gasoline cracks?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yemen war reignites, Houthis hit Saudi oil again?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf states drawn directly into an Iran war?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if IAEA loses access as Iran ejects inspectors?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi anti-ship missiles extend to the Arabian Sea?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf tension reopens a wide Brent-WTI arb?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf escalation triggers a refiner sour-crude scramble?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia weaponizes CPC access to pressure Astana?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf hurricane shuts in 90% of offshore oil & gas?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf storm wrecks LNG export terminals: NG whipsaws?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf Coast oil-platform evacuation: precautionary CL spike?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Oil supercycle stagflation: structural underinvestment spikes crude?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stagflation barbell regime: only energy and gold beat cash?
11%▲ Imminent
What if insurers pull tanker war-risk cover at a key port?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a gas insurgency threatens Algeria's pipelines to Europe?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Category 6 storm hits the Gulf Coast refinery corridor?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a European diesel crunch spikes freight, farming and heating costs?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if global crude slumps toward $40 and the Western Canadian Select discount widens sharply?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brent crude collapses toward $35 and guts Norwegian offshore cash flow and capex?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if a sustained low oil price freezes Norwegian continental-shelf investment?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if depleted US strategic reserves leave little buffer against a new oil supply shock?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuelan heavy crude exports collapse back toward 2020 lows?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if sabotage on Nigeria's Niger Delta infrastructure cuts several hundred thousand barrels per day?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if sanctions enforcement cuts Russian crude exports by 2 million barrels per day?
11%▼ 6–18 months
What if an accelerated OPEC+ unwind returns 3 million barrels per day to a soft market?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if persistent quota cheating fractures OPEC+ and removes the oil market price floor?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a nuclear revival drives uranium spot prices to multi-decade highs?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if deeper-than-expected OPEC+ cuts spike Brent and complicate disinflation?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if tighter enforcement of Russian oil sanctions removes barrels and spikes diesel?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sustained oil-supply shock forces central banks into a stagflation policy dilemma?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if simultaneous oil and grain price spikes drive a broad cost-of-living crisis?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if a surge of sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian barrels floods an oversupplied oil market?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if a global oil-price slump drives a synchronized energy-credit downcycle?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if re-imposed US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tighten the heavy-sour crude market?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a major LNG exporter restricts shipments for geopolitical leverage and spikes gas prices?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Abqaiq processing hub knocked offline again?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthis sink a laden crude tanker?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bab-el-Mandeb mining closes the strait?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Israel strikes Iran without US backing?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Iran assembles a nuclear arsenal, Gulf goes nuclear?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Armenia-Azerbaijan war reignites over a corridor?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iran-Saudi détente collapses back into rivalry?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if US carrier strike group deters wider Gulf war?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Insurer war-zone redesignation freezes Gulf transit?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cross-border strikes hit Jordan and Iraq energy links?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf war fear spikes the oil-vol surface?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Tit-for-tat Israel-Iran direct strikes resume?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Saudi surprise output hike sends Brent sharply lower?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if European refinery closures tighten the diesel-import balance?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz scare spikes jet and diesel cracks on supply fear?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gulf states heatwave breaches survivability wet-bulb limit?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Gulf hurricane misses energy hub: relief rally in CL/NG?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Putin's sudden death sparks a struggle over Russia's nukes?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Texas flaring ban forces Permian oil cutbacks?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if an uprising destabilizes Jordan's monarchy?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a second uprising topples Iran's regime?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sudan splits into two rival recognised states?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a drone swarm strikes Saudi Arabia's oil heartland?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a grounded ship shuts the Bosphorus to exports?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if NATO blockades Russia's shadow oil fleet?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if an oil-price spike widens India's current-account deficit and weakens the rupee?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if falling oil output and prices undercut Nigeria's FX earnings and fiscal revenue?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a simultaneous oil spike and EM outflow forces the RBI to tighten into an Indian slowdown?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if OSFI's climate scenario projects fossil-fuel credit losses rising 73% in a delayed transition?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if a faster energy transition strands Alberta oil-sands reserves and pipeline-backed loans?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a sustained low oil price freezes Canadian energy capital spending and cascades into defaults?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if a faster energy transition strands Norwegian oil assets and offshore-services loans?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf embed a $30 per barrel war-risk premium in Brent?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Hormuz security crisis sends tanker rates up threefold with war-risk surcharges?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb forces long-haul tanker rerouting and widens differentials?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if attacks sever Iraq's export pipelines and remove 2 million barrels per day?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if renewed civil conflict shuts Libyan oilfields and removes 1 million barrels per day?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if sustained Houthi strikes on Gulf energy assets embed a persistent supply-risk premium?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if an Eastern Mediterranean maritime dispute disrupts Israeli and Egyptian gas flows?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a supply-driven Brent spike pushes retail gasoline prices to record highs?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sustained drone campaign on Russian refineries tightens global diesel and gasoline supply?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a lower G7 oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions squeeze Russian export logistics?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if coordinated seizure of Russia's shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if cascading diesel-export bans tighten the global middle-distillate market?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if hurricane outages on the US Gulf Coast spike diesel and gasoline cracks ahead of peak demand?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight global refining and strong freight demand blow out diesel cracks?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if refinery outages into peak US driving season spike gasoline prices to record highs?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if a delayed then abrupt climate transition paradoxically spikes oil prices through underinvestment?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a gasoline-price spike from refining tightness becomes a political flashpoint?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if years of upstream underinvestment leave oil spare capacity so thin that a small shock spikes prices?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a major producer weaponizes gas or oil exports for geopolitical leverage?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a wider Israel-Iran or regional war threatens Gulf oil infrastructure and shipping?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if conflict or sabotage disrupts Caspian and Central-Asian oil and gas pipelines?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if major refiners restrict diesel and gasoline exports and spike refined-product prices?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a dominant producer weaponises strategic commodity stockpiles?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if markets front-run a disorderly carbon transition and dump fossil assets early?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if Canada's carbon price accelerates past C$250 per tonne?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if a credible net-zero path strands US shale growth capex in the Permian?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Vietnam clash at Vanguard Bank over oil drilling?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia-NATO clash spikes Brent above $100?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Naval clash in the Black Sea draws in NATO?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Caspian platform attack halts Azeri gas to Europe?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Prolonged Hormuz closure forces SPR releases?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf platform sabotage removes offshore barrels?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if West Bank flares into a third intifada?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Drone swarm halts a Saudi gas-processing train?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Simultaneous Saudi and UAE terminal outages?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ecuador oil blockade by protesters cuts exports?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Guyana coast incident disrupts Stabroek FPSO output?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Thai oil-import bill swells on Brent spike, baht slides?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz-driven LNG and product scare spikes TTF and diesel together?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Twin Gulf hurricanes in one month overwhelm response?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico Gulf hurricane hits Pemex oil & coastal industry?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stagflationary supply shock 2.0: a new chokepoint reprises 1973?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela invades Guyana to seize its oil?
9%▼ 3–10 years
What if a fusion or battery breakthrough guts long-run oil demand?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a coup in Egypt threatens transit through the Suez Canal?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Iran tests a nuclear weapon and breaks out?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a US destroyer in the Red Sea?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran mines and fully closes the Strait of Hormuz?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a European jet-fuel squeeze spikes airline costs and feeds services inflation?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if simultaneous crude, gold and edible-oil spikes blow out India's current-account deficit?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if record wildfire seasons disrupt Western Canadian oil, forestry and property markets?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if pipeline bottlenecks blow out the Western Canadian Select discount and strand Alberta barrels?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz disruption strands Qatari LNG and spikes gas prices across Asia and Europe?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Saudi Arabia and the UAE are drawn into a regional war threatening their own exports?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if payment disputes prolong the shutdown of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia sanctions extend to palladium and nickel and tighten battery-metal markets?
9%▼ 6–18 months
What if a renewed Saudi-Russia quota split triggers a competitive supply surge that collapses prices?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if recovering air travel against tight kerosene supply spikes jet-fuel cracks?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cold winter and tight distillate stocks spike heating-oil prices in the US Northeast?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight refining and strong travel demand spike jet-fuel prices and raise airline costs?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if repeated SPR releases deplete strategic petroleum reserves and raise tail oil-price risk?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a diesel-crack spike raises agricultural, freight and logistics costs across supply chains?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a Gulf escalation freezes tanker traffic through Hormuz and spikes crude and freight?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if major refiners' governments curb diesel and gasoline exports and fragment fuel markets?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if sanctions and OPEC+ cuts disproportionately remove sour crude and spike diesel cracks?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if heightened Gulf tensions embed a persistent risk-premium in oil prices?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if tanker attacks in the Gulf send war-risk insurance premia surging and idle shipping capacity?
Showing the top 500 by probability of 601. Open the full library in the Scenario Lab →