What if Aluminium glut spills over to cap copper sentiment?
A Chinese aluminium surplus and weak ex-China demand drag the light-metals complex lower, spilling negative sentiment onto copper despite tighter fundamentals.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Chinese aluminium surplus and weak ex-China demand drag the light-metals complex lower, spilling negative sentiment onto copper despite tighter fundamentals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · China growth ▼ · Consumer spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.38–+1.38% · other way +7.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.03–+0.28% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.16–+2.96% · other way +20.37% (n=7) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.52–+4.13% · other way +1.18% (n=12) |
| 5 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.76–+0.67% · other way +1.29% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+0.25% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.22–+0.68% · other way -3.04% (n=8) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.4% | 70% | 26 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -15.3% | 66% | 17 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.9% | 61% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 25 | 0.11 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 32 | 0.09 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.3% | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -6bp | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | · |