What if Aluminium substitution caps copper in wiring and grid cable?
Persistently high copper prices accelerate aluminium and CCA substitution in building wire and overhead lines, structurally trimming copper demand growth and price upside.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Persistently high copper prices accelerate aluminium and CCA substitution in building wire and overhead lines, structurally trimming copper demand growth and price upside. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.93–+4.09% · other way -4.49% (n=5) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.28–+0.41% · other way -1.14% (n=5) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.93–+0.78% · other way -3.89% (n=5) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.71–+1.02% · other way -4.7% (n=5) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.29–+0.74% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.07–+1.93% · other way -5.65% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.3% | 82% | 10 | 0.47 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.24 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 22% | 8 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 39% | 8 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 42% | 11 | 0.00 | · |