What if Alzheimer's is reversed?
A new mechanism (beyond amyloid) demonstrably halts or reverses cognitive decline, lifting a vast care-cost burden and extending working healthspan.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A new mechanism (beyond amyloid) demonstrably halts or reverses cognitive decline, lifting a vast care-cost burden and extending working healthspan. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Labor surplus ▲ · Longevity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.12–+0.31% · other way +0.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -14.04–+3.72% · other way -0.91% (n=10) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.05–+0.31% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.11–+0.6% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.98–+9.69% · other way +14.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.6–+2.13% · other way -3.62% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.68–+4.75% · other way -0.98% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.49–+1.35% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.5% · 5d -9.6% | 83% | 14 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 68% | 19 | 0.28 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 19 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -6.0% | 64% | 14 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 62% | 19 | 0.19 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +1.1% | 60% | 18 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 16 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 17 | 0.09 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 18 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 18 | 0.00 | · |