What if Andean water-storage buildout secures Lima & mine supply?
Large investment in high-altitude reservoirs and aquifer recharge offsets glacier loss, securing dry-season water for Lima and copper mines and easing regional supply risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Large investment in high-altitude reservoirs and aquifer recharge offsets glacier loss, securing dry-season water for Lima and copper mines and easing regional supply risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.16–+1.12% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.33–+3.06% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.81–+12.2% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.27–+0.2% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.53–+0.57% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.59–+0.15% · other way +11.03% (n=11) |
| 8 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.36–+0.85% · other way +2.95% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.33–+1.38% · other way +0.26% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.76–+3.74% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.92–+0.44% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.12–+0.16% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 38 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -5.3% | 57% | 35 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |