What if Andean mine shutdowns triggered a copper supply shock?
Chilean/Peruvian mine halts are a clean copper supply shock: Freeport tracks the metal one-for-one and 'Dr. Copper' spiking reads as a growth/inflation tell that lifts EM FX and export-levered Korea even as it tightens physical balances. Live analogue is the Sep-2025 Grasberg mud-rush and the Jul-2025 50% copper-tariff Comex record, both of which gapped copper. Forward angle: a supply-driven spike (vs. demand-led) is stagflationary, not growth-positive — so the bullish global-growth read is suspect; favor the miner over the cyclical basket.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Chilean/Peruvian mine halts trigger a copper supply shock (Dr. Copper spikes). The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.