What if Andean mine shutdowns triggered a copper supply shock?
Chilean/Peruvian mine halts are a clean copper supply shock: Freeport tracks the metal one-for-one and 'Dr. Copper' spiking reads as a growth/inflation tell that lifts EM FX and export-levered Korea even as it tightens physical balances. Live analogue is the Sep-2025 Grasberg mud-rush and the Jul-2025 50% copper-tariff Comex record, both of which gapped copper. Forward angle: a supply-driven spike (vs. demand-led) is stagflationary, not growth-positive — so the bullish global-growth read is suspect; favor the miner over the cyclical basket.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Chilean/Peruvian mine halts trigger a copper supply shock (Dr. Copper spikes). The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +5.0% hist +1.53–+3.08% |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +4.0% hist -0.45–+2.38% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.02–+0.36% |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.25–+0.3% |
| 5 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.89–+0.27% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.16–+2.87% |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.31–+1.31% |
| 8 | Nifty 50 NIFTYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.95% |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.35% |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.6–+0.38% |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.2% |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.58–+0.53% |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.17–+0.46% |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's LONG on FCX/XCU: history's base rate is contaminated by off-channel cobalt and gold windows and faded copper squeezes; a fresh Chilean/Peruvian mine halt tightens supply and lifts copper.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 72% | 40 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.5% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -2.5% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Strong fresh analogues (Grasberg halt); copper tight, supply shocks recurrent. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.