What if an anti-robot labour backlash disrupts major industries?
A neo-Luddite backlash is a risk-off automation-disruption event: high-beta tech and crypto majors sell, consumer-credit spreads widen on displacement stress, and the disinflation thesis stalls. No clean modern analogue; the closest sentiment rhyme is the July-2024 megacap AI-capex doubt selloff when automation enthusiasm briefly reversed. Forward angle: strikes that physically halt robot lines are a supply shock too, so the cleanest expression is short the disrupted operators, not a broad index — the cascade's crypto-beta leg is noise relative to the labor-action core.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Strikes and a neo-Luddite backlash against robot labor disrupt major industries. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.