What if Antibiotic resistance outpaces R&D?
Drug-resistant infections rise faster than new antibiotics arrive, raising mortality, healthcare costs and a slow-burn drag on growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Drug-resistant infections rise faster than new antibiotics arrive, raising mortality, healthcare costs and a slow-burn drag on growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.81–-0.45% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.78–-0.09% · other way +12.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -4.41–+11.86% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.34–+0.77% · other way +1.74% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.87–+0.91% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.48–+0.81% · other way +2.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.74–+0.37% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–-0.09% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.62–+1.3% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.3% · other way +0.87% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.3–+1.55% · other way +10.49% (n=9) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.74–+1.1% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+2.38% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -3.0% | 75% | 40 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 40 | 0.36 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.9% | 70% | 37 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.5% | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -2bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +10.8% · 5d +4.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |