What if rising antimicrobial resistance slowly worsens life insurers' mortality experience?
A slow rise in antimicrobial-resistant infection mortality structurally worsens life insurers' mortality experience, a creeping biological risk to long-dated mortality assumptions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A slow rise in antimicrobial-resistant infection mortality structurally worsens life insurers' mortality experience, a creeping biological risk to long-dated mortality assumptions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.7% hist -7.17–+1.26% · other way +3.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.03–+1.51% · other way +1.02% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.44–+0.87% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.21–+6.82% · other way +1.94% (n=11) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.21–+0.53% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.74–+0.68% · other way -0.97% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.57–+0.52% · other way -1.3% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.5–+1.09% · other way +11.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.06–+1.34% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.31–+0.75% · other way +3.9% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.88–+0.07% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.08–+10.65% · other way -3.97% (n=12) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.28–+0.33% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 35 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 32 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -6bp | 69% | 35 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 31 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 32 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -3.4% | 66% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -18bp · 5d -8bp | 64% | 36 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 32 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.5% | 56% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |