Pandemic shock
Every scenario in which pandemic shock is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
31 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if a new H5N1 wave culls US laying hens?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if China's African swine fever wave deepens?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if dengue establishes itself in Paris and northern France?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if a new COVID variant fully escapes existing vaccines?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if A pandemic or biosecurity scare triggers a sudden travel-demand shock?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a new outbreak locks down Shanghai's ports?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Engineered pathogen escapes a lab?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if an antibiotic-resistant superbug overwhelms hospitals?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a new pandemic brings back lockdowns and supply shocks?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a deadlier mpox strain outruns the vaccine supply?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if a contaminated vaccine lot causes infant deaths?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a mammal-adapted H5N1 strain hits US dairy herds?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a severe avian-flu wave culls poultry and sharply lifts egg and protein prices?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if African swine fever resurges and culls China's hog herd at 2018 scale?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if H5N1 bird flu starts spreading between humans?
8%▲ 3–10 years
What if a synthetic-biology lab accident sparks a biosecurity crackdown?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if an unknown 'Disease X' respiratory pathogen overwhelms hospitals?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if persistently elevated excess mortality forces life insurers to strengthen reserves?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a novel high-fatality pandemic drives a surge in life-insurance death claims?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a pandemic hits life insurers with surging claims and a simultaneous asset selloff?
7%▲ 3–10 years
What if worsening wildfire-smoke seasons drive a sustained rise in respiratory insurance claims?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if the Nipah virus reaches a dense Asian megacity?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a mutated MERS coronavirus turns airborne in the Gulf?
6%▲ Tail risk
What if a mail-order DNA gap lets someone synthesize a pathogen?
6%▲ Tail risk
What if an engineered pathogen escapes from a lab?
6%▼ 3–10 years
What if a longevity breakthrough leaves annuity providers dangerously under-reserved?
6%▲ 3–10 years
What if rising antimicrobial resistance slowly worsens life insurers' mortality experience?
6%▲ 3–10 years
What if a sustained rise in long-COVID disability claims worsens income-protection loss ratios?
6%▲ 3–10 years
What if a record heatwave drives excess mortality, crop losses and grid-stress property claims simultaneously?
5%▲ 0–6 months
What if a pandemic mortality catastrophe breaches life reinsurers' excess-mortality covers?
4%▲ Tail risk
What if stolen smallpox samples trigger a global biosecurity emergency?