What if Apple cuts its App Store commission to 10 percent?
A worldwide cut to 10% commission directly re-rates Apple's services-growth algorithm — the segment carrying the AAPL multiple — with broad tech easing in sympathy. Rhymes with the post-Epic and EU DMA fee concessions that forced margin give-backs while Apple engineered partial recapture. Forward angle: voluntary global cut pre-empts worse mandates, so it caps regulatory tail risk even as it trims services dollars — a quality-of-earnings, not existential, hit.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Apple slashes App Store fees worldwide under regulatory pressure, triggering re-rating of services-revenue growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.