What if Argentina dollarizes formally, killing chronic inflation?
A negotiated, reserve-backed dollarization replaces the peso, anchoring prices and lowering Argentina's risk premium as monetary financing ends.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A negotiated, reserve-backed dollarization replaces the peso, anchoring prices and lowering Argentina's risk premium as monetary financing ends. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.19–+0.56% · other way +0.29% (n=8) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.12–+0.62% · other way +1.41% (n=6) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -4.63–+3.53% · other way +12.7% (n=11) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–-0.13% · other way -3.15% (n=6) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.99–+7.1% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.28–+0.73% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.12–+1.43% · other way -2.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.32–+0.24% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.36–+13.17% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.17% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.19% · other way +1.11% (n=6) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.78–+5.8% · other way +2.29% (n=3) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.89–+2.42% · other way +0.08% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.6% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |