Argentina — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Argentina and its globally‑connected markets.
85 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
51%3–10 years
What if Latin America lithium triangle anchors EV materials?
45%1–3 years
What if Non-OPEC supply growth outpaces all demand growth?
45%6–18 months
What if Vaca Muerta pipeline debottleneck lifts Argentine oil shipments?
38%1–3 years
What if Vaca Muerta crude exports double, rebuilding Argentine reserves?
37%6–18 months
What if Argentina posts a sustained primary fiscal surplus?
37%0–6 months
What if La Niña intensification dries the US Plains and S-Brazil?
36%6–18 months
What if Argentine peso firms as monthly inflation hits low single digits?
35%1–3 years
What if Argentina climbs out of CCC as IMF EFF targets are met?
35%3–10 years
What if Argentine lithium triangle output scales, anchoring EV materials?
35%3–10 years
What if LatAm lithium triangle dominates global EV-battery supply?
33%3–10 years
What if Argentine shale gas displaces LNG imports, flipping the energy balance?
33%1–3 years
What if Bumper Argentine soy harvest floods reserves with farm dollars?
32%1–3 years
What if Argentina deregulation wave lifts growth and the Merval?
32%6–18 months
What if drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest?
32%6–18 months
What if Argentine real-rate carry trade draws hot money inflows?
31%1–3 years
What if Milei stumbles in 2027 and dollarization stalls?
30%6–18 months
What if Argentina returns to global bond markets after IMF review pass?
30%6–18 months
What if El Niño rains gift Argentina a record soy-and-corn rebound?
29%1–3 years
What if Andean copper-and-lithium upcycle lifts Chile, Peru and Argentina?
29%6–18 months
What if Argentina lifts cepo capital controls without a peso crash?
29%1–3 years
What if Argentina re-accesses voluntary markets after years of exclusion?
29%6–18 months
What if Argentine GDP-warrant payout triggers as growth rebounds?
29%1–3 years
What if IMF surcharge reform cuts borrowing costs for heavy users?
29%6–18 months
What if Triple-dip La Niña hammers Argentine corn and soy a third year?
28%1–3 years
What if Argentina reform credibility holds: bonds and peso rally (good)?
28%1–3 years
What if South American grain glut pressures global CORN and soy?
28%3–10 years
What if Vaca Muerta LNG export terminal turns Argentina a gas exporter?
27%1–3 years
What if Argentina-Brazil trade revival lifts Mercosur growth?
27%6–18 months
What if Argentina's planned return to global bond markets falls apart?
27%0–6 months
What if Argentina reserve-target miss forces a peso crawling-band break?
27%1–3 years
What if Argentina defaults for the tenth time?
27%0–6 months
What if Argentina widens the FX gap as the blue-chip swap blows out?
26%0–6 months
What if El Niño boon hands Argentina record Pampas grain rains?
26%0–6 months
What if La Nina soy shortfall starves Argentina of harvest dollars?
25%1–3 years
What if Argentina secures a fresh IMF EFF augmentation and bridge cash?
25%0–6 months
What if Argentine farmer export strike withholds soy and corn cargoes?
25%0–6 months
What if Argentina's peso collapses after Milei lifts capital controls?
25%3–10 years
What if Brazil-Argentina energy integration via Vaca Muerta gas?
24%0–6 months
What if Argentina austerity backlash threatens reform unwind?
24%3–10 years
What if Argentina dollarizes formally, killing chronic inflation?
24%1–3 years
What if Argentina-IMF deal anchors a multi-year disinflation glide?
24%6–18 months
What if Argentine carry unwind sparks a dollarization flight?
24%6–18 months
What if El Niño floods inundate Argentine and Brazilian wheat belts?
23%1–3 years
What if Vaca-Muerta-plus-pre-salt oil lifts Southern Cone exporters?
22%1–3 years
What if Argentina-plus-Brazil reform rally lifts the Southern Cone bid?
22%6–18 months
What if Argentine reform fatigue stalls the IMF program?
21%1–3 years
What if Argentina reform reversal reignites restructuring speculation?
20%6–18 months
What if Argentine brine ramp accelerates the lithium glut?
20%1–3 years
What if Argentine midterm setback derails the deregulation agenda?
20%1–3 years
What if Argentine WTI-linked export hedges lock in oil revenue?
20%1–3 years
What if IMF disbursement wave to LatAm rebuilds regional reserves?
20%1–3 years
What if Vaca Muerta gas glut turns Argentina into a net LNG exporter?
19%1–3 years
What if Argentina slips back toward default as reserves drain?
18%0–6 months
What if Argentine bank-deposit run on renewed peso distrust?
17%0–6 months
What if Argentina's crawling peg snaps into a discrete step-devaluation?
17%6–18 months
What if Argentine hyperinflation relapse as the peg snaps?
17%1–3 years
What if Argentine provinces default, dragging the sovereign curve?
17%6–18 months
What if EM contagion from an Argentine peso break hits regional FX?
17%1–3 years
What if Holdout litigation: a pari passu ruling revives the Argentina playbook?
17%6–18 months
What if a La Nina drought cuts Argentina's and Brazil's soybean and corn harvests?
17%6–18 months
What if Soy-dollar drought across the Plata basin starves reserves?
16%6–18 months
What if Argentina's crawling-peg breaks and triggers a sharp peso devaluation?
16%6–18 months
What if Argentine-Ecuadorian default fears sour broad EM credit?
16%6–18 months
What if Triple-La-Nina drought hits Southern Cone grain output?
15%3–10 years
What if fiscal anchoring fails in Argentina and the economy tips back into hyperinflation?
15%0–6 months
What if Argentine carry sudden-stop as global risk appetite sours?
15%6–18 months
What if Vaca Muerta output disappoints, denting the FX-windfall thesis?
14%1–3 years
What if Argentina copper revival as San Juan projects come online?
14%0–6 months
What if Favorable rains lift Argentine & Brazilian crop outlook?
13%1–3 years
What if a confidence shock sparks deposit flight from Argentine banks into dollars?
13%6–18 months
What if Argentine farmers hoard soy, withholding export dollars?
13%6–18 months
What if Brazil/Argentina LNG-import surge tightens Atlantic spot cargoes?
12%1–3 years
What if Argentina scraps the peso and adopts the dollar?
12%0–6 months
What if Argentina slides toward another sovereign default as reserves run dry?
12%1–3 years
What if Argentina abolishes the peso and dollarises its economy?
11%1–3 years
What if Argentina's IMF program goes off track and revives default risk?
10%1–3 years
What if Argentina re-enters debt-restructuring talks as bond payments prove unsustainable?
10%1–3 years
What if a severe South American drought cuts Brazil's and Argentina's soy and corn harvests?
9%6–18 months
What if Argentine export-tax changes and FX controls distort global soybean and corn flows?
8%6–18 months
What if an abrupt move toward Argentine dollarization collapses the peso and disrupts bank deposits?
8%6–18 months
What if a drought collapses Argentine soy and grain exports and deepens FX reserve scarcity?
7%6–18 months
What if Argentina's dollar shortage spiral forces renewed FX controls and peso devaluation?
7%1–3 years
What if Egypt, Pakistan and Argentina enter IMF programs simultaneously?
6%0–6 months
What if a strong dollar and rising yields reprise the 2018 EM dollar-debt squeeze?
6%1–3 years
What if an Argentine crisis collapses bilateral trade and hits Brazilian manufacturers?