Argentina — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Argentina and its globally‑connected markets.
85 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
53%3–10 years
What if Latin America lithium triangle anchors EV materials?
45%6–18 months
What if Vaca Muerta pipeline debottleneck lifts Argentine oil shipments?
45%1–3 years
What if Non-OPEC supply growth outpaces all demand growth?
38%1–3 years
What if Vaca Muerta crude exports double, rebuilding Argentine reserves?
37%6–18 months
What if Argentina posts a sustained primary fiscal surplus?
37%0–6 months
What if La Niña intensification dries the US Plains and S-Brazil?
36%6–18 months
What if Argentine peso firms as monthly inflation hits low single digits?
35%1–3 years
What if Argentina climbs out of CCC as IMF EFF targets are met?
33%3–10 years
What if Argentine lithium triangle output scales, anchoring EV materials?
33%1–3 years
What if Bumper Argentine soy harvest floods reserves with farm dollars?
33%3–10 years
What if LatAm lithium triangle dominates global EV-battery supply?
32%6–18 months
What if drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest?
32%1–3 years
What if Argentina deregulation wave lifts growth and the Merval?
32%3–10 years
What if Argentine shale gas displaces LNG imports, flipping the energy balance?
32%6–18 months
What if Argentine real-rate carry trade draws hot money inflows?
31%1–3 years
What if Milei stumbles in 2027 and dollarization stalls?
30%6–18 months
What if Argentina returns to global bond markets after IMF review pass?
30%6–18 months
What if El Niño rains gift Argentina a record soy-and-corn rebound?
29%6–18 months
What if Argentina lifts cepo capital controls without a peso crash?
29%6–18 months
What if Argentine GDP-warrant payout triggers as growth rebounds?
29%1–3 years
What if Andean copper-and-lithium upcycle lifts Chile, Peru and Argentina?
29%1–3 years
What if IMF surcharge reform cuts borrowing costs for heavy users?
29%1–3 years
What if Argentina re-accesses voluntary markets after years of exclusion?
29%6–18 months
What if Triple-dip La Niña hammers Argentine corn and soy a third year?
28%3–10 years
What if Vaca Muerta LNG export terminal turns Argentina a gas exporter?
28%1–3 years
What if South American grain glut pressures global CORN and soy?
27%6–18 months
What if Argentina's planned return to global bond markets falls apart?
27%1–3 years
What if Argentina defaults for the tenth time?
27%0–6 months
What if Argentina reserve-target miss forces a peso crawling-band break?
27%0–6 months
What if Argentina widens the FX gap as the blue-chip swap blows out?
27%1–3 years
What if Argentina-Brazil trade revival lifts Mercosur growth?
27%1–3 years
What if Argentina reform credibility holds: bonds and peso rally (good)?
26%0–6 months
What if La Nina soy shortfall starves Argentina of harvest dollars?
26%0–6 months
What if El Niño boon hands Argentina record Pampas grain rains?
25%0–6 months
What if Argentina's peso collapses after Milei lifts capital controls?
25%1–3 years
What if Argentina secures a fresh IMF EFF augmentation and bridge cash?
25%3–10 years
What if Brazil-Argentina energy integration via Vaca Muerta gas?
25%0–6 months
What if Argentine farmer export strike withholds soy and corn cargoes?
24%3–10 years
What if Argentina dollarizes formally, killing chronic inflation?
24%6–18 months
What if Argentine carry unwind sparks a dollarization flight?
24%1–3 years
What if Argentina-IMF deal anchors a multi-year disinflation glide?
24%6–18 months
What if El Niño floods inundate Argentine and Brazilian wheat belts?
23%1–3 years
What if Vaca-Muerta-plus-pre-salt oil lifts Southern Cone exporters?
23%6–18 months
What if Argentine brine ramp accelerates the lithium glut?
22%6–18 months
What if Argentine reform fatigue stalls the IMF program?
22%1–3 years
What if Argentina-plus-Brazil reform rally lifts the Southern Cone bid?
22%0–6 months
What if Argentina austerity backlash threatens reform unwind?
21%1–3 years
What if Argentina reform reversal reignites restructuring speculation?
20%1–3 years
What if Argentine midterm setback derails the deregulation agenda?
20%1–3 years
What if Argentine WTI-linked export hedges lock in oil revenue?
20%1–3 years
What if IMF disbursement wave to LatAm rebuilds regional reserves?
19%1–3 years
What if Argentina slips back toward default as reserves drain?
18%0–6 months
What if Argentine bank-deposit run on renewed peso distrust?
18%1–3 years
What if Vaca Muerta gas glut turns Argentina into a net LNG exporter?
17%6–18 months
What if a La Nina drought cuts Argentina's and Brazil's soybean and corn harvests?
17%6–18 months
What if Argentine hyperinflation relapse as the peg snaps?
17%1–3 years
What if Argentine provinces default, dragging the sovereign curve?
17%6–18 months
What if Soy-dollar drought across the Plata basin starves reserves?
17%6–18 months
What if EM contagion from an Argentine peso break hits regional FX?
17%1–3 years
What if Holdout litigation: a pari passu ruling revives the Argentina playbook?
17%0–6 months
What if Argentina's crawling peg snaps into a discrete step-devaluation?
16%6–18 months
What if Argentina's crawling-peg breaks and triggers a sharp peso devaluation?
16%6–18 months
What if Triple-La-Nina drought hits Southern Cone grain output?
16%6–18 months
What if Argentine-Ecuadorian default fears sour broad EM credit?
15%3–10 years
What if fiscal anchoring fails in Argentina and the economy tips back into hyperinflation?
15%6–18 months
What if Vaca Muerta output disappoints, denting the FX-windfall thesis?
15%0–6 months
What if Argentine carry sudden-stop as global risk appetite sours?
14%1–3 years
What if Argentina copper revival as San Juan projects come online?
14%0–6 months
What if Favorable rains lift Argentine & Brazilian crop outlook?
13%1–3 years
What if a confidence shock sparks deposit flight from Argentine banks into dollars?
13%6–18 months
What if Argentine farmers hoard soy, withholding export dollars?
13%6–18 months
What if Brazil/Argentina LNG-import surge tightens Atlantic spot cargoes?
12%1–3 years
What if Argentina scraps the peso and adopts the dollar?
12%1–3 years
What if Argentina abolishes the peso and dollarises its economy?
12%0–6 months
What if Argentina slides toward another sovereign default as reserves run dry?
11%1–3 years
What if Argentina's IMF program goes off track and revives default risk?
10%1–3 years
What if Argentina re-enters debt-restructuring talks as bond payments prove unsustainable?
10%1–3 years
What if a severe South American drought cuts Brazil's and Argentina's soy and corn harvests?
9%6–18 months
What if Argentine export-tax changes and FX controls distort global soybean and corn flows?
8%6–18 months
What if an abrupt move toward Argentine dollarization collapses the peso and disrupts bank deposits?
8%6–18 months
What if a drought collapses Argentine soy and grain exports and deepens FX reserve scarcity?
7%1–3 years
What if Egypt, Pakistan and Argentina enter IMF programs simultaneously?
7%6–18 months
What if Argentina's dollar shortage spiral forces renewed FX controls and peso devaluation?
6%1–3 years
What if an Argentine crisis collapses bilateral trade and hits Brazilian manufacturers?
6%0–6 months
What if a strong dollar and rising yields reprise the 2018 EM dollar-debt squeeze?