What if Argentina abolishes the peso and dollarises its economy?
Argentina abolishing the peso for the dollar is an idiosyncratic regional event: it boosts marginal dollar demand and ends BCRA money-printing, but global Treasuries/gold barely register — the supplied gold/BTC and US-curve cascade overstates spillover. Rhymes with Ecuador's 2000 and El Salvador's 2001 dollarizations, which stabilized local prices without moving global rates. Argentina trades soy/beef with China and Brazil; dollarization hard-wires it to Fed policy. Forward: with no lender of last resort, the next external shock has no domestic buffer.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Argentina formally abolishes the peso for the dollar, eliminating its central bank and reshaping regional monetary dynamics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.