What if Argentina's IMF program goes off track and revives default risk?
Argentina's IMF program goes off track on missed reserve and fiscal targets, freezing disbursements, reviving default risk and forcing renewed capital controls.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Argentina's IMF program goes off track on missed reserve and fiscal targets, freezing disbursements, reviving default risk and forcing renewed capital controls. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.