What if Argentina defaults for the tenth time?
Argentina's tenth default and CDS trigger is idiosyncratic EM credit: a modest flight-to-quality nudges USTs richer and the dollar firmer, with HY and financials softer at the margin. The 2001 (~$100bn) and 2020 defaults are the templates and both stayed contained, hitting Argentine assets without global contagion. Trade is local: ARS/Argentine credit, not US beta; the BTC/MSTR drawdown overstates spillover from a serial, well-telegraphed defaulter.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Argentina misses a restructured 2027 maturity, triggering its tenth sovereign default and CDS payout as post-Milei political risk resurfaces. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.