What if a Big Four auditor resigns from 40 clients at once?
A Big Four firm resigning from 40 engagements at once freezes those stocks pending re-audit — the trade is short the affected names and a credit/financials wobble on governance contagion, not a market-wide event. The analogue is the Arthur Andersen collapse (2002), which stranded clients and forced re-audits and delistings across its book. Skeptical take: the hit is concentrated in the orphaned issuers; the broad crypto/Nasdaq legs overstate spillover — the durable read is a re-pricing of audit-quality risk premia.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Big Four firm resigns from 40 audit engagements simultaneously, freezing those stocks pending re-audit and forced delistings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.