What if EV acceleration collapses revenue for ICE-dependent auto suppliers?
EV acceleration collapses revenue for ICE-dependent tier-1 and tier-2 auto suppliers, triggering downgrades and defaults concentrated in legacy powertrain credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. EV acceleration collapses revenue for ICE-dependent tier-1 and tier-2 auto suppliers, triggering downgrades and defaults concentrated in legacy powertrain credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.14% · other way -0.4% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.55–+1.36% · other way +17.24% (n=11) |
| 3 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.37–+0.19% · other way -0.29% (n=11) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.22–+5.63% · other way -6.53% (n=11) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.69–+2.02% · other way -3.01% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.69% · other way +3.36% (n=9) |
| 7 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.13–+0.33% · other way -3.58% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–+0.58% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.51–+-0.0% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.74–+0.38% · other way +1.13% (n=11) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.65–+3.19% · other way -9.06% (n=9) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+1.3% · other way +1.59% (n=11) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.67–+0.83% · other way -0.65% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -3.9% | 77% | 13 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d +1.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +1.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |