What if the UAW wins contract limits on factory robots?
UAW contract limits on plant AI/robotics raise Detroit labor costs and slow EV automation, de-rating the robotics-silicon complex (Nvidia, Tesla, semis) while cushioning autoworker consumption. Rhymes with the 2023 UAW Stand-Up Strike settlement that lifted labor costs and pressured Big Three margins/EV timelines. Trade: long autoworker-area consumption is thin; the cleaner expression is short Detroit-OEM margins and fade the automation-capex names on the headline.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. UAW wins contract limits on AI and robotics in plants, raising Detroit labor costs and slowing EV automation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Robotics productivity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.