What if cheap robotics ignite a fully automated reshoring boom?
Tax credits plus cheap robotics igniting fully automated US factories is the strongest reshoring/capex impulse here: it bids Nvidia/semis/Tesla hard and pulls copper (Freeport) on industrial demand. Rhymes with the post-CHIPS/IRA 2022-23 factory-construction boom that lifted capital-goods orders and industrial real estate. Forward angle: 'lights-out' reshoring delivers output, not jobs — the political backlash (robot tax) is the embedded counter-trade.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Tax credits plus cheap robotics trigger a wave of fully automated US factories, lifting industrial real estate and capital-goods orders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.