What if automation drives a multi-decade surge in productivity?
A multi-decade BLS productivity jump validates the jobless-boom thesis and drives multiple expansion concentrated in Nvidia/semis/Tesla. Rhymes with the late-1990s productivity miracle that re-rated equity multiples for years before the excess unwound. Skeptic's note: a single strong print is noisy and revision-prone; the durable trade is long-duration growth multiples, but watch yields — a 2023-style 'good news lifts real yields' backlash can cap the rally.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. BLS prints a multi-decade productivity jump from automation, fueling a "jobless boom" debate and equity-multiple expansion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.