What if Automation-supplier re-rating as factories buy robots over workers?
Reshoring plus labor scarcity drives capital substitution toward industrial robots and machine vision, lifting orders at automation vendors; the robot-productivity capex cycle re-rates the factory-automation cohort.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Reshoring plus labor scarcity drives capital substitution toward industrial robots and machine vision, lifting orders at automation vendors; the robot-productivity capex cycle re-rates the factory-automation cohort. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -3.2–+6.32% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.41–+1.15% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.23–+1.85% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.46–+0.82% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.22–+2.73% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.1–+3.41% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.81–+4.05% · other way -5.17% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.18–+1.1% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.5–+1.01% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.4–+2.54% · other way -4.65% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -19.37–+8.79% · other way -7.7% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.94–+1.98% · other way -2.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.18–+0.41% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.48–+1.44% · other way -1.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 12 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +21.0% · 5d +0.8% | 81% | 10 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.9% · 5d -11.8% | 88% | 8 | 0.55 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.6% | 81% | 10 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 81% | 10 | 0.41 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +3bp | 76% | 12 | 0.40 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -1.5% | 74% | 11 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 74% | 11 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -0.4% | 76% | 10 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 10 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 68% | 12 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +2.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 10 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -6.3% | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 9 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +1.8% | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |