What if Autonomy-and-EV convergence re-rates the mobility supply chain?
Scaling robotaxis and EVs lift demand for lidar-alternatives, power electronics, batteries and software, re-rating the broad mobility supply chain on autonomy-plus-electrification growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Scaling robotaxis and EVs lift demand for lidar-alternatives, power electronics, batteries and software, re-rating the broad mobility supply chain on autonomy-plus-electrification growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.53–+1.22% · other way -0.71% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.25–+3.12% · other way -0.68% (n=10) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.15–+0.88% · other way -0.01% (n=10) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.18–+1.4% · other way +3.32% (n=10) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.18–+0.81% · other way -0.41% (n=10) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.8–+1.45% · other way +3.98% (n=10) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.04–+0.85% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -19.1–+8.69% · other way -7.36% (n=10) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.42–+1.07% · other way +2.81% (n=10) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.1–+18.7% · other way +8.91% (n=10) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.43–+2.52% · other way -1.48% (n=10) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.8–+2.3% · other way +0.98% (n=10) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.71–+4.75% · other way +1.73% (n=10) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.55–+1.25% · other way -0.13% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +1.4% | 90% | 10 | 0.74 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +16.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 89% | 9 | 0.69 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.7% · 5d -11.5% | 88% | 8 | 0.56 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.6% | 79% | 9 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 81% | 10 | 0.44 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -0.9% | 84% | 9 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 71% | 10 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 9 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -4.5% | 68% | 9 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 9 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 9 | 0.24 | · |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 9 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 9 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 9 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |