What if Basel III endgame capital rules push banks to shed risk assets and tighten credit?
Higher capital requirements under the Basel III endgame push banks to shed risk-weighted assets, tightening credit supply to businesses and households.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Higher capital requirements under the Basel III endgame push banks to shed risk-weighted assets, tightening credit supply to businesses and households. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.33–+1.22% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.94–-0.01% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -18.27–+9.01% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.45–+4.98% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.12–+0.16% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.68–+3.97% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–-0.02% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.63–+5.39% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.02–+0.27% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.03% · other way +1.78% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.45–+2.84% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.58% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -17.7% · 5d -13.9% | 100% | 3 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.9% | 68% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 3 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 22 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -15bp · 5d -7bp | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +1.4% | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.8% | 42% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 46% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +10.6% ↺ fades | 33% | 3 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |