What if Beijing unleashes a 10 trillion yuan fiscal bazooka?
A surprise RMB 10tn central-government recap plus consumption vouchers is a direct growth impulse: Freeport and copper rip on restocking, HK/China equities and global high-beta rally, VIX compresses. Rhymes with the 2008 RMB 4tn stimulus that drove copper to records and the Sep-2024 PBOC/Politburo easing pop. Forward angle: this cycle's test is whether fiscal goes to households (consumption) versus old-style infrastructure, vouchers would be the genuine regime shift, but markets have been burned by under-delivery, so fade the first headline pop unless the money is confirmed central-government and consumer-directed.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. China announces a surprise RMB 10tn central-government recapitalization and consumption-voucher package, ripping commodities and HK equities higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.