What if Beijing property-rescue package clears unsold-inventory overhang?
State purchases of unsold homes for social housing plus mortgage-rate cuts clear inventory and steady prices, restoring developer cash flow; the rescue lifts China-linked metals demand and commodity-exporter currencies.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. State purchases of unsold homes for social housing plus mortgage-rate cuts clear inventory and steady prices, restoring developer cash flow; the rescue lifts China-linked metals demand and commodity-exporter currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · China growth ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.