What if Biotech-equity rout as funding dries and trials disappoint?
A frozen funding market and a cluster of clinical failures sink unprofitable biotech equities reliant on capital access. The drawdown punishes speculative names and trims sector risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A frozen funding market and a cluster of clinical failures sink unprofitable biotech equities reliant on capital access. The drawdown punishes speculative names and trims sector risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Biotech breakthrough ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.77–+4.32% |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -12.55–+1.24% |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.25–+1.43% |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.22% |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.22–+1.57% |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.66–+3.59% |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.21–-0.12% |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.12% |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–+0.43% |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.96–+0.2% |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.99–+0.99% |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.82–+0.22% |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.53–+1.2% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -9.4% | 86% | 17 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -6.8% | 60% | 22 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.6% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |