What if Bitcoin mining anchors grid-scale renewable build-outs?
Miners act as flexible offtakers that improve the economics of new wind and solar, embedding mining into the energy transition and stabilizing its demand base.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Miners act as flexible offtakers that improve the economics of new wind and solar, embedding mining into the energy transition and stabilizing its demand base. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.