What if the Bank of England speeds up gilt sales into a fragile market?
Accelerating active gilt sales into a fragile market spikes long-end reals and revives LDI-style pension stress: the trade is short duration and rate-sensitive tech, with mortgage rates and global long yields dragged higher in sympathy. This is the September-October 2022 LDI doom-loop, when forced gilt selling fed on itself until the BOE intervened. Forward: pension hedging is better collateralized now, so the tail is smaller but the long-end repricing still leads.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The BOE speeds up active gilt sales into a fragile market, spiking long-end yields and reviving 2022 LDI-style pension stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.