What if the Bank of England speeds up gilt sales into a fragile market?
Accelerating active gilt sales into a fragile market spikes long-end reals and revives LDI-style pension stress: the trade is short duration and rate-sensitive tech, with mortgage rates and global long yields dragged higher in sympathy. This is the September-October 2022 LDI doom-loop, when forced gilt selling fed on itself until the BOE intervened. Forward: pension hedging is better collateralized now, so the tail is smaller but the long-end repricing still leads.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The BOE speeds up active gilt sales into a fragile market, spiking long-end yields and reviving 2022 LDI-style pension stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.67–-0.12% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.64–+0.95% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.99–+0.02% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -6.88–+6.03% · other way +8.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–+0.47% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -7.98–+7.77% · other way +9.1% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.15–+1.25% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.59–-0.03% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.06% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.99–+2.12% · other way +4.01% (n=10) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.57–+1.11% · other way +2.75% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.04% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 13 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.02–+0.2% · other way +17.7% (n=11) |
| 14 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.3–+0.18% · other way -1.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -7.8% | 83% | 20 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -5.8% | 71% | 17 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -5.6% | 70% | 20 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.3% | 65% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -3bp | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 60% | 21 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d +1.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.0% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Active QT ongoing; acceleration into LDI-style stress is a real but secondary risk in 6mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.