What if the Bank of England cuts rates into sticky inflation?
A BOE cut as services inflation reignites is a credibility error: sterling and gilts sell on a fiscal-dominance read even as the front end prices easing — the curve bear-steepens, the opposite of a clean risk-on. Rhymes with the September 2022 mini-budget gilt crisis, where loss of fiscal/monetary credibility crushed GBP and long gilts together. Forward: stickier UK services CPI makes the credibility hit faster than a textbook dovish cut.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The Bank of England eases prematurely as services inflation reignites, sending sterling and gilts into a credibility-driven tailspin. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.