What if the Bank of Korea defends the won past 1,600?
The BOK burning reserves to hold the won past 1,600 is dollar-supportive at the margin (reserve drawdown signals stress, capital seeks USD): DXY firms, gold/BTC and EM/AUD soften. This rhymes with the 1997 Asian-crisis reserve defenses that ultimately failed and the 2022 won slide past 1,440 that drew official action. Trade is long USD/KRW into the defense; reserve-funded pegs historically buy time, not reversal, unless the Fed eases.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Bank of Korea spends heavily defending the won past 1,600, draining reserves and stoking regional FX-stability fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -10.49–+3.06% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.15–+0.3% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -6.1–+2.57% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.61–-0.16% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.17–+0.53% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.03–-0.33% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -10.11–+2.56% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.46–+0.12% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.25–+0.16% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.44–+0.19% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -7bp hist -12.07–+0.63% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.71–+5.32% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.71–-0.18% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on DGS30 (yields down): the +31bp Russia-reserve-freeze print dominates a 2022 safe-haven-into-Treasuries regime; a won-defense reserve drain is a UST-supply/risk-on read pushing yields the cascade's way, not history's.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -1.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 79% | 14 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.34 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 14 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 64% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 64% | 27 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -5.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 62% | 27 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.5% | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Won under persistent pressure; BOK reserve-defense around weak levels is a recurring live pattern. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.