What if the Bank of Korea defends the won past 1,600?
The BOK burning reserves to hold the won past 1,600 is dollar-supportive at the margin (reserve drawdown signals stress, capital seeks USD): DXY firms, gold/BTC and EM/AUD soften. This rhymes with the 1997 Asian-crisis reserve defenses that ultimately failed and the 2022 won slide past 1,440 that drew official action. Trade is long USD/KRW into the defense; reserve-funded pegs historically buy time, not reversal, unless the Fed eases.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Bank of Korea spends heavily defending the won past 1,600, draining reserves and stoking regional FX-stability fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.