What if Brazil iron-ore windfall lifts the real on China restock?
A China construction restock lifts iron-ore prices and Brazil's mining export earnings, boosting the trade surplus and supporting the real.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A China construction restock lifts iron-ore prices and Brazil's mining export earnings, boosting the trade surplus and supporting the real. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · China growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.27–+6.37% · other way +2.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.24% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.26% · other way -12.84% (n=11) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.62–+1.68% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.4–+0.74% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.26–+0.75% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -12.57–+15.6% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.87–+8.85% · other way -6.9% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.16–+0.35% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.3–+2.77% · other way -1.87% (n=12) |
| 12 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.86–+2.4% · other way -3.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.24–+0.8% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.8–+3.57% · other way -2.61% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 9 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -1.2% | 100% | 4 | 0.70 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.2% | 87% | 7 | 0.65 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -1.4% | 100% | 4 | 0.64 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.2% | 87% | 7 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 87% | 7 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -3.0% | 88% | 8 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 73% | 7 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 74% | 9 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +29.7% · 5d +13.0% | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +16.4% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 7 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 9 | 0.14 | · |