What if a major Brazilian tailings-dam failure halts Vale's iron-ore output?
A major Brazilian tailings-dam failure (a Brumadinho/Mariana-style disaster) forces iron-ore output halts and regulatory shutdowns at Vale, tightening seaborne supply and spiking prices, a supply-disruption scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major Brazilian tailings-dam failure (a Brumadinho/Mariana-style disaster) forces iron-ore output halts and regulatory shutdowns at Vale, tightening seaborne supply and spiking prices, a supply-disruption scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.6% hist -1.5–+8.38% · other way -9.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.65–+0.19% · other way +2.43% (n=10) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.97–+0.09% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–+0.49% · other way +2.53% (n=10) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.11–+2.34% · other way +19.86% (n=10) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.98–+0.09% · other way +1.76% (n=8) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.47–+1.32% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.51–+0.03% · other way +0.01% (n=9) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.92–+0.18% · other way -1.89% (n=10) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.08–+0.59% · other way +1.76% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.15–+1.54% · other way +14.02% (n=4) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.12% · other way +0.22% (n=9) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–-0.03% · other way -1.09% (n=10) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.56–+1.04% · other way +1.55% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.6% | 72% | 37 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.8% | 65% | 37 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +3.1% | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.3% · 5d +2.9% | 63% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |