What if a major Brazilian tailings-dam failure halts Vale's iron-ore output?
A major Brazilian tailings-dam failure (a Brumadinho/Mariana-style disaster) forces iron-ore output halts and regulatory shutdowns at Vale, tightening seaborne supply and spiking prices, a supply-disruption scenario.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major Brazilian tailings-dam failure (a Brumadinho/Mariana-style disaster) forces iron-ore output halts and regulatory shutdowns at Vale, tightening seaborne supply and spiking prices, a supply-disruption scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.