What if Brazil tailings-dam failure halts Vale iron-ore output?
A new tailings-dam incident forces precautionary shutdowns across Vale's system; lost Brazilian supply tightens high-grade pellets and spikes iron ore.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A new tailings-dam incident forces precautionary shutdowns across Vale's system; lost Brazilian supply tightens high-grade pellets and spikes iron ore. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.55–+1.6% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.88–-0.06% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.04–+0.9% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–+0.05% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–-0.1% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.59–+0.97% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.86–+1.85% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.6–+0.34% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.84–+0.18% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.01–+1.74% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.15–+1.71% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.27–+0.94% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.08% · other way +1.91% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -7.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -4.1% | 63% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -5.1% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.4% | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -14.0% | 56% | 24 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |