What if weak Asian LNG demand undercuts British Columbia LNG project economics?
Weak Asian LNG demand and soft global gas prices undercut British Columbia LNG project economics, impairing project-finance exposures and Western Canadian gas producers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak Asian LNG demand and soft global gas prices undercut British Columbia LNG project economics, impairing project-finance exposures and Western Canadian gas producers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.47–+2.28% · other way +9.01% (n=11) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.33–+2.78% · other way +1.76% (n=11) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.46–+0.02% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 4 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.11% · other way -3.08% (n=8) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.13–+1.91% · other way -2.56% (n=8) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+0.2% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+1.15% · other way -0.29% (n=11) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.09% · other way -1.49% (n=11) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.83–+0.21% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.84–+3.77% · other way +10.95% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.24 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.7% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 41% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |