Canada — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Canada and its globally‑connected markets.
124 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
49%0–6 months
What if Canada's mortgage renewals reset 300 basis points higher?
45%1–3 years
What if Non-OPEC supply growth outpaces all demand growth?
40%6–18 months
What if BoC cuts cushion a mortgage-renewal wall in a soft landing?
38%6–18 months
What if Canadian heavy floods south as TMX runs at capacity?
37%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
32%3–10 years
What if Permafrost thaw opens new high-latitude cropland?
30%0–6 months
What if the Bank of Canada cuts far below the Fed and sinks the loonie?
30%6–18 months
What if Toronto condo investors flee a glut of completions?
28%1–3 years
What if Canada immigration-cut soft landing eases housing strain (good)?
28%6–18 months
What if 60% of Canadian mortgages renew at rates 15-20% above their original level?
28%3–10 years
What if Western greenfield uranium mines erase the supply deficit?
27%1–3 years
What if Potash oversupply resumes as Belarus volumes return?
26%1–3 years
What if Australia-Canada housing soft landing as rate cuts cushion buyers?
26%6–18 months
What if BoC over-eases as a housing-debt cycle reignites inflation?
25%6–18 months
What if Cameco Cigar Lake flood halts a top-tier uranium mine?
25%6–18 months
What if Durum-wheat shortfall spikes pasta-and-semolina prices?
24%6–18 months
What if Canada immigration cut overshoots into a growth air-pocket?
24%0–6 months
What if Canadian Prairie drought cuts spring-wheat and canola yields?
24%1–3 years
What if Canada and Australia ban foreign homebuyers for good?
24%6–18 months
What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
22%6–18 months
What if Canadian mortgage-renewal cliff hits households and bank earnings?
22%0–6 months
What if Wildfire shut-ins cut 0.5 mb/d of Canadian oil-sands output?
21%3–10 years
What if Canada's CPP stays solid, a rare funded-pension bright spot?
21%6–18 months
What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?
20%0–6 months
What if the 2025 tranche of Canadian five-year-fixed mortgages renews at payments 15-20% higher?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
19%6–18 months
What if Canada's 2023 wildfire season is surpassed in a single year?
18%1–3 years
What if Anglosphere affordability snap: Australia and Canada correct?
18%6–18 months
What if 60% of Canadian mortgages renew into 15-20% higher payments in 2025-26?
18%6–18 months
What if broad US tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and energy tip Canada into recession?
17%1–3 years
What if Canadian downtown office values fall sharply as vacancy surges?
16%6–18 months
What if Toronto and Vancouver borrowers who bought at the 2022 peak default in large numbers at renewal?
16%0–6 months
What if Wet boreal summer yields calm Canadian fire season?
15%6–18 months
What if Canadian variable-rate mortgages tip en masse into negative amortization?
15%6–18 months
What if persistently high office vacancies in Toronto and Calgary force steep property writedowns?
14%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage arrears climb back toward 2009 levels as the renewal wall hits?
14%0–6 months
What if Canada's boreal megafires smoke out North America for weeks?
14%0–6 months
What if a Keystone pipeline rupture strands Canadian crude?
13%0–6 months
What if the Bank of Canada cuts rates aggressively as the renewal wall and tariffs crush demand?
13%6–18 months
What if Canada's extended mortgage amortizations hit a sudden reset cliff?
13%6–18 months
What if US tariffs and content rules gut the North American auto supply chain through Canada?
13%6–18 months
What if negative-carry condo investors in Toronto and Vancouver dump properties en masse?
13%6–18 months
What if higher mortgage renewal payments divert Canadian household income from spending to debt service?
13%6–18 months
What if Canadian unemployment climbs toward 9% as the mortgage-renewal drag and tariffs bite?
13%0–6 months
What if US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as Canadian terms of trade deteriorate?
13%1–3 years
What if OSFI's climate scenario reveals material flood and wildfire losses at Canadian banks?
13%1–3 years
What if a USMCA renegotiation breakdown triggers US tariff threats on Mexico and Canada?
12%1–3 years
What if stretched Canadian households tap home-equity lines to cover renewal payment shock?
12%6–18 months
What if the OSFI mortgage stress test traps stretched Canadian borrowers with non-bank lenders?
12%6–18 months
What if wildfire destruction in Alberta and British Columbia concentrates Canadian mortgage losses?
12%1–3 years
What if Toronto and Vancouver pre-construction condo demand collapses?
12%3–10 years
What if a delayed transition lifts Canadian bank credit losses by roughly 73%?
11%6–18 months
What if provisions for credit losses surge across Canada's Big Six banks?
11%6–18 months
What if a wave of Canadian commercial-mortgage maturities hits amid higher rates and lower values?
11%1–3 years
What if a deep Canadian recession sends the TSX down roughly 36%?
11%1–3 years
What if updated Canadian flood maps reprice exposed properties and tighten mortgage credit?
11%6–18 months
What if global crude slumps toward $40 and the Western Canadian Select discount widens sharply?
11%3–10 years
What if Canadian banks' concentrated fossil-fuel books absorb outsized transition impairments?
11%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure in Russia and Canada?
10%1–3 years
What if Canada, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland deleverage their housing debt together?
10%6–18 months
What if a sustained low oil price freezes Canadian energy capital spending and cascades into defaults?
10%6–18 months
What if Canadian housing affordability reaches its worst level on record?
10%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage arrears rise toward 2008-09 levels?
10%1–3 years
What if a wave of Canadian commercial mortgages renews at far higher rates?
10%1–3 years
What if pre-sold condo developers in Toronto and Vancouver fail as buyers walk and financing dries up?
10%1–3 years
What if Canadian house prices fall about 26% peak-to-trough in a severe downturn?
10%1–3 years
What if weak Asian LNG demand undercuts British Columbia LNG project economics?
10%1–3 years
What if CMHC and private mortgage insurers face a claims surge as Canadian defaults rise?
10%6–18 months
What if the Bank of Canada stays restrictive longer and intensifies the mortgage renewal shock?
10%6–18 months
What if Canada's 2026 mortgage renewal wall concentrates steep payment shocks?
10%6–18 months
What if Canadian households default on auto and unsecured debt alongside their mortgages?
10%6–18 months
What if rising rates push a wave of Canadian variable-rate mortgages past their trigger rate?
10%3–10 years
What if OSFI's climate scenario projects fossil-fuel credit losses rising 73% in a delayed transition?
10%1–3 years
What if high-LTV Toronto condos bought at the 2022-23 peak fall into negative equity?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian alternative mortgage lenders face mounting defaults as the renewal wall and prices collide?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian banks hit limits on negative-amortization relief for variable-rate mortgages?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian home prices fall 30% as the renewal-shock cohort forces sales?
9%1–3 years
What if Canada's GDP falls 5% and unemployment hits 9% in an IMF-FSAP severe scenario?
9%6–18 months
What if losses concentrate in Canada's growing pool of uninsured high-ratio and extended-amortization mortgages?
9%0–6 months
What if a widening BoC-Fed rate gap drives the Canadian dollar sharply weaker?
9%1–3 years
What if record wildfire seasons disrupt Western Canadian oil, forestry and property markets?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian pension funds write down global office and retail holdings?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian office REITs cut distributions and sell assets as values fall?
9%3–10 years
What if Canada's carbon price accelerates past C$250 per tonne?
9%6–18 months
What if a flood or strike at a major potash mine tightens global supply and spikes fertilizer prices?
9%1–3 years
What if Quebec holds a third sovereignty referendum?
9%1–3 years
What if house prices fall simultaneously across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia?
9%1–3 years
What if pipeline bottlenecks blow out the Western Canadian Select discount and strand Alberta barrels?
8%3–10 years
What if a faster energy transition strands Alberta oil-sands reserves and pipeline-backed loans?
8%1–3 years
What if a severe recession forces OSFI to restrict Big Six dividends and buybacks?
8%6–18 months
What if wholesale-funding stress and widening covered-bond spreads squeeze Canada's Big Six banks?
8%6–18 months
What if a sharp unwinding of CAD carry trades drives loonie and rate volatility into a slowing economy?
8%3–10 years
What if an abrupt swing in Canadian carbon policy whipsaws energy and heavy-industry valuations?
8%1–3 years
What if cash-flow-negative Canadian condo investors capitulate and flood supply?
8%6–18 months
What if Canadian households divert income to higher mortgage payments and cut consumer spending?
8%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage-investment corporations face redemption runs as underlying loans sour?
8%6–18 months
What if Toronto and Vancouver condo buyers from 2022 fall into negative equity?
8%1–3 years
What if Canada's large uninsured high-ratio mortgage book suffers rising defaults?
8%6–18 months
What if more Canadian variable-rate mortgages breach their trigger rate?
8%6–18 months
What if mortgage resets across Canada, the UK, Australia, and the Nordics hit spending at once?
7%6–18 months
What if a China-led oil demand shock hits Canadian and Norwegian producers in tandem?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian alternative mortgage lenders face defaults as the renewal shock hits?
7%1–3 years
What if Canada's big banks sharply raise mortgage loss provisions as renewals default?
7%3–10 years
What if unaffordable flood and wildfire insurance depresses collateral values in high-risk regions?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian HELOC balances amplify household leverage as falling prices cut equity?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian house prices fall 40% as the renewal wall, leverage, and recession compound?
7%1–3 years
What if a renewal wall, tariff recession and unemployment spike produce a Canadian housing hard landing?
7%1–3 years
What if a Canadian immigration slowdown removes a key housing-demand pillar as supply rises?
7%3–10 years
What if surging climate-catastrophe losses widen the Canadian property-insurance protection gap?
7%6–18 months
What if Canada's mortgage stress test traps renewing borrowers at higher rates?
7%3–10 years
What if repeated failure to expand Canadian pipeline capacity strands incremental oil-sands output?
7%1–3 years
What if a deep Canadian recession blows out heavily indebted provincial bond spreads?
7%1–3 years
What if ballooning provincial deficits and a deep recession put Canada's AAA rating on watch?
7%1–3 years
What if a record Canadian wildfire and flood season pushes catastrophe losses past insurer expectations?
7%3–10 years
What if high-cost Canadian oil sands are stranded first under a net-zero price path?
7%1–3 years
What if mortgage insurers in Canada, Australia, and the US face surging synchronized claims?
6%1–3 years
What if Canadian Big Six banks need emergency recapitalization after a severe recession?
6%1–3 years
What if Canada Mortgage Bond spreads widen as housing-credit concerns rise?
6%1–3 years
What if Canadian office-to-residential conversions fall short on economics?
6%3–10 years
What if an earlier-than-expected global oil-demand peak permanently lowers Canadian oil-sands cash flows?
6%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost raises costs on Canada's northern infrastructure loans?
6%0–6 months
What if US wholesale funding tightness strains Canadian banks as the dollar basis widens?
6%3–10 years
What if a rapid energy transition strands oil loan books in Canada and Norway?
5%6–18 months
What if a prolonged tech outage halts a major Canadian bank's payments?