Canada — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Canada and its globally‑connected markets.
124 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
49%0–6 months
What if Canada's mortgage renewals reset 300 basis points higher?
45%1–3 years
What if Non-OPEC supply growth outpaces all demand growth?
40%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
40%6–18 months
What if BoC cuts cushion a mortgage-renewal wall in a soft landing?
38%6–18 months
What if Canadian heavy floods south as TMX runs at capacity?
30%0–6 months
What if the Bank of Canada cuts far below the Fed and sinks the loonie?
30%6–18 months
What if Toronto condo investors flee a glut of completions?
30%3–10 years
What if Permafrost thaw opens new high-latitude cropland?
28%6–18 months
What if 60% of Canadian mortgages renew at rates 15-20% above their original level?
27%1–3 years
What if Potash oversupply resumes as Belarus volumes return?
27%1–3 years
What if Canada immigration-cut soft landing eases housing strain (good)?
26%6–18 months
What if Cameco Cigar Lake flood halts a top-tier uranium mine?
26%1–3 years
What if Australia-Canada housing soft landing as rate cuts cushion buyers?
25%6–18 months
What if Durum-wheat shortfall spikes pasta-and-semolina prices?
24%1–3 years
What if Canada and Australia ban foreign homebuyers for good?
24%3–10 years
What if Western greenfield uranium mines erase the supply deficit?
24%0–6 months
What if Canadian Prairie drought cuts spring-wheat and canola yields?
24%6–18 months
What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
24%6–18 months
What if BoC over-eases as a housing-debt cycle reignites inflation?
23%6–18 months
What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?
22%0–6 months
What if Wildfire shut-ins cut 0.5 mb/d of Canadian oil-sands output?
22%6–18 months
What if Canadian mortgage-renewal cliff hits households and bank earnings?
22%6–18 months
What if Canada immigration cut overshoots into a growth air-pocket?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
20%0–6 months
What if the 2025 tranche of Canadian five-year-fixed mortgages renews at payments 15-20% higher?
20%3–10 years
What if Canada's CPP stays solid, a rare funded-pension bright spot?
19%6–18 months
What if Canada's 2023 wildfire season is surpassed in a single year?
18%6–18 months
What if 60% of Canadian mortgages renew into 15-20% higher payments in 2025-26?
18%6–18 months
What if broad US tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and energy tip Canada into recession?
18%1–3 years
What if Anglosphere affordability snap: Australia and Canada correct?
17%1–3 years
What if Canadian downtown office values fall sharply as vacancy surges?
17%0–6 months
What if Wet boreal summer yields calm Canadian fire season?
16%6–18 months
What if Toronto and Vancouver borrowers who bought at the 2022 peak default in large numbers at renewal?
15%6–18 months
What if Canadian variable-rate mortgages tip en masse into negative amortization?
15%6–18 months
What if persistently high office vacancies in Toronto and Calgary force steep property writedowns?
14%0–6 months
What if a Keystone pipeline rupture strands Canadian crude?
14%0–6 months
What if Canada's boreal megafires smoke out North America for weeks?
14%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage arrears climb back toward 2009 levels as the renewal wall hits?
13%6–18 months
What if negative-carry condo investors in Toronto and Vancouver dump properties en masse?
13%6–18 months
What if Canadian unemployment climbs toward 9% as the mortgage-renewal drag and tariffs bite?
13%0–6 months
What if US tariff escalation drives USD/CAD past 1.50 as Canadian terms of trade deteriorate?
13%6–18 months
What if US tariffs and content rules gut the North American auto supply chain through Canada?
13%0–6 months
What if the Bank of Canada cuts rates aggressively as the renewal wall and tariffs crush demand?
13%6–18 months
What if higher mortgage renewal payments divert Canadian household income from spending to debt service?
13%6–18 months
What if Canada's extended mortgage amortizations hit a sudden reset cliff?
13%1–3 years
What if a USMCA renegotiation breakdown triggers US tariff threats on Mexico and Canada?
13%3–10 years
What if a delayed transition lifts Canadian bank credit losses by roughly 73%?
13%1–3 years
What if OSFI's climate scenario reveals material flood and wildfire losses at Canadian banks?
13%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure in Russia and Canada?
12%1–3 years
What if Toronto and Vancouver pre-construction condo demand collapses?
12%1–3 years
What if stretched Canadian households tap home-equity lines to cover renewal payment shock?
12%6–18 months
What if the OSFI mortgage stress test traps stretched Canadian borrowers with non-bank lenders?
12%6–18 months
What if wildfire destruction in Alberta and British Columbia concentrates Canadian mortgage losses?
11%1–3 years
What if a deep Canadian recession sends the TSX down roughly 36%?
11%6–18 months
What if provisions for credit losses surge across Canada's Big Six banks?
11%6–18 months
What if a wave of Canadian commercial-mortgage maturities hits amid higher rates and lower values?
11%6–18 months
What if global crude slumps toward $40 and the Western Canadian Select discount widens sharply?
11%3–10 years
What if Canadian banks' concentrated fossil-fuel books absorb outsized transition impairments?
11%1–3 years
What if updated Canadian flood maps reprice exposed properties and tighten mortgage credit?
10%1–3 years
What if a wave of Canadian commercial mortgages renews at far higher rates?
10%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage arrears rise toward 2008-09 levels?
10%1–3 years
What if high-LTV Toronto condos bought at the 2022-23 peak fall into negative equity?
10%6–18 months
What if Canada's 2026 mortgage renewal wall concentrates steep payment shocks?
10%6–18 months
What if Canadian housing affordability reaches its worst level on record?
10%6–18 months
What if the Bank of Canada stays restrictive longer and intensifies the mortgage renewal shock?
10%1–3 years
What if Canadian house prices fall about 26% peak-to-trough in a severe downturn?
10%1–3 years
What if CMHC and private mortgage insurers face a claims surge as Canadian defaults rise?
10%3–10 years
What if OSFI's climate scenario projects fossil-fuel credit losses rising 73% in a delayed transition?
10%3–10 years
What if a faster energy transition strands Alberta oil-sands reserves and pipeline-backed loans?
10%3–10 years
What if an abrupt swing in Canadian carbon policy whipsaws energy and heavy-industry valuations?
10%6–18 months
What if a sustained low oil price freezes Canadian energy capital spending and cascades into defaults?
10%1–3 years
What if weak Asian LNG demand undercuts British Columbia LNG project economics?
10%1–3 years
What if pre-sold condo developers in Toronto and Vancouver fail as buyers walk and financing dries up?
10%1–3 years
What if Canada, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland deleverage their housing debt together?
10%6–18 months
What if rising rates push a wave of Canadian variable-rate mortgages past their trigger rate?
10%6–18 months
What if Canadian households default on auto and unsecured debt alongside their mortgages?
10%3–10 years
What if Canada's carbon price accelerates past C$250 per tonne?
9%1–3 years
What if Quebec holds a third sovereignty referendum?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian pension funds write down global office and retail holdings?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian office REITs cut distributions and sell assets as values fall?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian home prices fall 30% as the renewal-shock cohort forces sales?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian banks hit limits on negative-amortization relief for variable-rate mortgages?
9%1–3 years
What if house prices fall simultaneously across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia?
9%1–3 years
What if Canada's GDP falls 5% and unemployment hits 9% in an IMF-FSAP severe scenario?
9%1–3 years
What if record wildfire seasons disrupt Western Canadian oil, forestry and property markets?
9%1–3 years
What if pipeline bottlenecks blow out the Western Canadian Select discount and strand Alberta barrels?
9%1–3 years
What if Canadian alternative mortgage lenders face mounting defaults as the renewal wall and prices collide?
9%6–18 months
What if losses concentrate in Canada's growing pool of uninsured high-ratio and extended-amortization mortgages?
9%0–6 months
What if a widening BoC-Fed rate gap drives the Canadian dollar sharply weaker?
9%6–18 months
What if a flood or strike at a major potash mine tightens global supply and spikes fertilizer prices?
8%1–3 years
What if Canada's large uninsured high-ratio mortgage book suffers rising defaults?
8%1–3 years
What if cash-flow-negative Canadian condo investors capitulate and flood supply?
8%6–18 months
What if Toronto and Vancouver condo buyers from 2022 fall into negative equity?
8%6–18 months
What if Canadian households divert income to higher mortgage payments and cut consumer spending?
8%6–18 months
What if mortgage resets across Canada, the UK, Australia, and the Nordics hit spending at once?
8%6–18 months
What if more Canadian variable-rate mortgages breach their trigger rate?
8%1–3 years
What if a severe recession forces OSFI to restrict Big Six dividends and buybacks?
8%6–18 months
What if wholesale-funding stress and widening covered-bond spreads squeeze Canada's Big Six banks?
8%1–3 years
What if Canadian mortgage-investment corporations face redemption runs as underlying loans sour?
8%3–10 years
What if repeated failure to expand Canadian pipeline capacity strands incremental oil-sands output?
8%6–18 months
What if a sharp unwinding of CAD carry trades drives loonie and rate volatility into a slowing economy?
8%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost raises costs on Canada's northern infrastructure loans?
8%3–10 years
What if a rapid energy transition strands oil loan books in Canada and Norway?
8%3–10 years
What if high-cost Canadian oil sands are stranded first under a net-zero price path?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian HELOC balances amplify household leverage as falling prices cut equity?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian alternative mortgage lenders face defaults as the renewal shock hits?
7%1–3 years
What if Canada's big banks sharply raise mortgage loss provisions as renewals default?
7%1–3 years
What if Canadian house prices fall 40% as the renewal wall, leverage, and recession compound?
7%1–3 years
What if mortgage insurers in Canada, Australia, and the US face surging synchronized claims?
7%6–18 months
What if Canada's mortgage stress test traps renewing borrowers at higher rates?
7%1–3 years
What if a Canadian immigration slowdown removes a key housing-demand pillar as supply rises?
7%3–10 years
What if unaffordable flood and wildfire insurance depresses collateral values in high-risk regions?
7%1–3 years
What if ballooning provincial deficits and a deep recession put Canada's AAA rating on watch?
7%1–3 years
What if a deep Canadian recession blows out heavily indebted provincial bond spreads?
7%3–10 years
What if surging climate-catastrophe losses widen the Canadian property-insurance protection gap?
7%1–3 years
What if a renewal wall, tariff recession and unemployment spike produce a Canadian housing hard landing?
7%3–10 years
What if an earlier-than-expected global oil-demand peak permanently lowers Canadian oil-sands cash flows?
7%6–18 months
What if a China-led oil demand shock hits Canadian and Norwegian producers in tandem?
7%1–3 years
What if a record Canadian wildfire and flood season pushes catastrophe losses past insurer expectations?
6%1–3 years
What if Canadian office-to-residential conversions fall short on economics?
6%1–3 years
What if Canada Mortgage Bond spreads widen as housing-credit concerns rise?
6%1–3 years
What if Canadian Big Six banks need emergency recapitalization after a severe recession?
6%0–6 months
What if US wholesale funding tightness strains Canadian banks as the dollar basis widens?
5%6–18 months
What if a prolonged tech outage halts a major Canadian bank's payments?