What if labour's share of GDP plunges as automation lifts profits?
A falling labor share lifting corporate profits bids the automation winners (Nvidia, Tesla, semis) even as it ignites tax-the-robots politics — the cascade rightly nets out risk-off sentiment against the capex bid. Rhymes with the post-2000 secular labor-share decline that fattened margins and equity returns for two decades. Forward angle: the embedded tail is policy reversal (robot tax/redistribution) that the +1.1% Nvidia leg doesn't discount.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Labor's share of GDP plunges as automation lifts profits, igniting redistribution politics and tax-the-robots momentum. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.