What if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence again?
A Catalan UDI is a Spanish-sovereign and IBEX-banks trade: direct rule (Article 155) widens Spain-Bund spreads and hits Caixabank/Sabadell, which redomiciled out of Catalonia in the Oct-2017 episode. That 2017 precedent is the exact analogue — IBEX dipped but recovered fast once Madrid asserted control. Catalonia is ~19% of Spanish GDP; the ECB backstop and EU's non-recognition of secession cap the tail, so the panic-equity leg overstates it.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Catalan parliament declares independence again, Madrid imposes direct rule, Spanish bonds and IBEX sell off hard. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.