What if Chile earthquake damages copper mine and smelter capacity?
A major Chilean earthquake disrupts mine access, power and smelter operations; the abrupt supply loss spikes copper and widens deliverable premiums.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major Chilean earthquake disrupts mine access, power and smelter operations; the abrupt supply loss spikes copper and widens deliverable premiums. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.0–+2.82% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.37–+2.38% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.58–+1.34% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.95–+6.72% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.81–+1.71% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.17–+1.48% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.37% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 13 | 0.44 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.5% | 75% | 12 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -1.8% | 75% | 12 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 44% | 19 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +0.4% | 43% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | · |