What if China consumption pivot offsets property drag and supports growth?
Policy successfully shifts China's growth model toward household consumption via transfers and social-safety-net spending, cushioning the property drag; the rebalancing supports China growth and selectively lifts consumer-linked demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Policy successfully shifts China's growth model toward household consumption via transfers and social-safety-net spending, cushioning the property drag; the rebalancing supports China growth and selectively lifts consumer-linked demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.02–+1.39% · other way -1.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.11–+1.32% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.1–+0.78% · other way -1.39% (n=12) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.07–+1.01% · other way -1.24% (n=12) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.06–+0.4% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.79–+2.04% · other way -17.08% (n=8) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.96–+11.48% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.8–+2.09% · other way -11.51% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.54–+0.38% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.43–+0.22% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.45% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.3–+0.45% · other way -9.36% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.48–+1.28% · other way -5.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +3bp | 71% | 40 | 0.33 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -8.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |