What if China consumption pivot offsets property drag and supports growth?
Policy successfully shifts China's growth model toward household consumption via transfers and social-safety-net spending, cushioning the property drag; the rebalancing supports China growth and selectively lifts consumer-linked demand.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Policy successfully shifts China's growth model toward household consumption via transfers and social-safety-net spending, cushioning the property drag; the rebalancing supports China growth and selectively lifts consumer-linked demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.