What if China copper-scrap flood undercuts refined-cathode demand?
A surge in domestic and imported copper scrap substitutes for refined cathode in Chinese fabrication, loosening the refined balance and capping price.
21%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 21%· 90% range 10–32%· 40 analogues · measured class growth 94% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — growth ≈1.8868/yr → 94% in 18 mo94%
Analyst prior · editorial share 23% of the class21%
Pooled · weight 87%22%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)22%
Published21%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A surge in domestic and imported copper scrap substitutes for refined cathode in Chinese fabrication, loosening the refined balance and capping price. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Freeport (copper)FCX📈 chart
Equity
▼ -0.7%
hist -6.32–+1.41% · other way +7.78% (n=12)
2
CopperXCUon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▼ -0.6%
hist -1.98–+0.31% · other way -0.13% (n=12)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Also moves (not yet on Hyperliquid): Freeport (copper) -0.7%
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Platinum hits an 11-year high on Chinese jewelry demand and deficit 2025-06↗Soviet August coup attempt against Gorbachev 1991-08↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗China retaliates to Liberation Day: 34% tariffs + rare-earth controls 2025-04↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗Palladium jumps after US pushes G7 sanctions on Russian metal 2024-10↗ASML bookings-miss crash 2024-10↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗Nikkei 225 record single-day rebound 2024-08↗Offshore yuan hits a record low 2022-11↗China fires ballistic missiles into Japan's EEZ during Taiwan drills 2022-08↗Alibaba upsizes buyback to record $25 billion 2022-03↗Kaisa Group offshore default 2021-12↗Evergrande debt crisis - global selloff 2021-09↗Didi removed from China app stores after NYSE IPO 2021-07↗Bitcoin May 2021 crash 2021-05↗Copper tops $10,000 a tonne for the first time since 2011 2021-04↗Gold closes above $2,000/oz for the first time 2020-08↗Chinese yuan breaks 7 per dollar; US names China manipulator 2019-08↗Apple cuts revenue guidance on China weakness 2019-01↗North Korea sixth nuclear test 2017-09↗North Korea 'fire and fury' nuclear scare 2017-08↗China stock-market circuit-breaker fiasco 2016-01↗August 24, 2015 ETF flash crash 2015-08↗China's PBOC reveals 57% jump in gold reserves after six-year silence 2015-07↗Shanghai A-share bubble peak / crash begins 2015-06↗Gold futures velocity-logic flash crash 2014-01↗Gold all-time peak of $1,921/oz 2011-09↗Egyptian revolution / Mubarak uprising 2011-01↗Silver hits 30-year high as JPMorgan and HSBC face manipulation suits 2010-10↗Copper crashes to ~$1.30/lb as 2008 crisis crushes China demand 2008-12↗China 4 trillion yuan stimulus 2008-11↗2008 global rice crisis: Thai benchmark tops $1,000/ton 2008-04↗October 27, 1997 mini-crash 1997-10↗Asian financial crisis - Thai baht float 1997-07↗Tiananmen Square crackdown 1989-06↗Hong Kong Stock Exchange four-day closure after Black Monday 1987-10↗Chernobyl disaster 1986-04↗Silver Thursday 1980-03↗Gold peaks at $850 1980-01↗