What if China deflation export: factory-gate price falls suppress global CPI?
Persistent Chinese overcapacity exports deflation through cheap goods, suppressing global core inflation and easing DM central-bank pressure but squeezing rival manufacturers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Persistent Chinese overcapacity exports deflation through cheap goods, suppressing global core inflation and easing DM central-bank pressure but squeezing rival manufacturers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.06–+1.42% · other way +8.04% (n=6) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.65–+2.44% · other way +0.15% (n=4) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.29–+0.39% · other way -0.38% (n=7) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.97–+5.66% · other way +0.23% (n=6) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.64–+2.21% · other way +10.74% (n=4) |
| 7 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.02–+0.43% · other way -2.72% (n=6) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.43% · other way +1.09% (n=6) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.84–+1.21% · other way +17.59% (n=4) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.94–+0.23% · other way -6.34% (n=7) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -9.81–+3.11% · other way +43.1% (n=9) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.75% · other way +2.24% (n=6) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -8.46–+2.62% · other way +24.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.43–+0.53% · other way +4.25% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 29 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -15.4% | 64% | 19 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -8.1% | 63% | 21 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.6% | 58% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -5bp | 52% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |