What if Chinese property developers keep defaulting on dollar bonds?
Chinese property developers continue defaulting on dollar bonds as presales and refinancing stay frozen, extending the largest EM corporate default wave on record.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chinese property developers continue defaulting on dollar bonds as presales and refinancing stay frozen, extending the largest EM corporate default wave on record. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.